Should we talk about the weather? (hi, hi, hi)

 

Just had that song in my head.

Anywho, the weather.

Becoming milder!

Friday will be overcast with a chance of widely scattered flurries in the afternoon.  No big deal.  Seriously.  Temperatures in the mid 30s for much of the day.

Saturday and Sunday look rainy, but the good news is that it'll be rain (not snow or mixed precipitation).  It'll also get warm enough (upper 40s on Saturday, lower 50s on Sunday) that the existing ice/snow slop will melt.  Downside of that: the rain (which will be heavy at times, particularly on Saturday night and Sunday morning) could combine with the icemelt to cause flooding. :(

Travel note: we could see some fog on Sunday morning, so watch out for travel delays (by air or by ... wheels) due to fog, rain, flooding, whatnot.

Monday 2/12 looks a bit chillier behind that rain-producing front.  Expect highs in the low to mid 40s with overnight lows in the mid 20s.  Pretty cloudy, too.

Partly cloudy and seasonable with highs in the lower 40s and lows in the mid to upper 20s on the following dates:

Tuesday 2/13

Friday 2/16

Saturday 2/17

Sunday 2/18 

But what about Wednesday 2/14 and Thursday 2/15, Monsoon?  Why have you skipped those dates?

I AM SO GLAD YOU ASKED. 

There may be a lil bit of snow/rain on those days.  Not huge amounts, and not steady.  But enough to be a nuisance. 

(Did I oversell that?)

Of course, track and temperature will be key, so there will be updates forthcoming.

Fret not, dear readers.

And stay tuned for updates, why doncha?

Monsoon

Posted on Thursday, February 8, 2018 at 07:49PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

THE EAGLES ARE SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!!!!

Amazing.  That was just ... breathtaking.

So, focusing on Wednesday's weather: it's going to be a lot like Sunday.  Snow, then freezing rain.  Slippery driving.

Here's my call, subject to updates / tweaks:

Precipitation begins as snow between 5 and 7am Wednesday.

Sometime between 11 and 1, snow will mix with sleet (frozen pellets) and freezing rain.

Freezing rain (rain that freezes onto surfaces) becomes plain rain (rain that just stays water even when it hits the ground).  Expect this to happen between 2 and 4.

And there may even be some mixing back to snow as precipitation ends between 8 and 10pm.

Accumulation: 2 to 4 inches of snow, with .1 to .2 inch of icy crust on top.  (This is for Berks.  Northern Berks, Schuylkill County, and the Poconos could get higher amounts.)

In Philadelphia and its immediate suburbs, central and south Jersey, and even Lancaster, expect little to no snow accumulation, but (potentially more hazardous) extended periods of sleet and freezing rain.

Impacts: slippery travel, especially on secondary roads, driveways, and lots.  Expect hazardous travel between 8am and 2pm.

Schools: timing and temperature are everything, which is usually true with winter forecasting, but especially in this case.

Chance of delay Wednesday, 11.31%

Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 38.14%

Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 16.52%

Chance of delay Thursday, 67.33%

Chance of cancellation Thursday, 11.22%  [note - I forecast the weather.  My percentage for Thursday does not account for area schools that may actually close for the Eagles Super Bowl parade.]

Stay tuned for updates!

Monsoon

Posted on Monday, February 5, 2018 at 06:23PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

SUPER BOWL LII FORECAST

All credit for this brilliant image goes to Trevor Wagner, former student and current friend, who, in a Facebook post, referred to Bill Belichick as "Mama Fratelli in a hoodie." I Googled the genius phrase and lo and behold, someone had made the comparison, because it's the internet and of course someone had made this. If I Googled "Stratford-upon-Avon diaper rash walrus," I'm sure something would come up, and I'm positive I wouldn't want to see it.I'm just a little bit excited about the Eagles being in their third-ever Super Bowl and, I predict, finally winning the damn thing.

Eagles 27, Patriots 10.

 

Now to the weather.  We got some proper snow this morning into early afternoon.  I expected light snow showers before a rapid changeover to plain rain.  And yet, there it was, proper snowing as I drove to Corropolese to pick up my tomato pie for the big game.

So if you're reading this on Sunday afternoon, some secondary roads are still slick - there's a solid coating of snow with a freezing-rain crust on top.  But as temperatures rise into the mid and upper 30s and plain rain predominates, expect roads to be just fine.

Rain is finished by 7-8pm.  Temperatures will dip into the upper 20s overnight and it'll be windy as (deflated) balls by AM commute time.  But I don't expect to see many delays - especially given the fact that we may be looking at a snow day midweek.

Chance of delay Monday 2/5, 12.77%

Chance of cancellation Monday 2/5, 3.29%

So Monday becomes sunny with gusty winds and a high only in the upper 20s.

Tuesday is variably cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers in the afternoon and evening, signifying nothing.

Wednesday is the interesting day.  By 2-4am we should see snow develop.  This continues on and off until 10-12, when temperatures rise into the upper 30s and we see precipitation mix with (then change rapidly to) plain rain.  But the snow could accumulate 1-3 inches before the rain comes, causing some driving issues and resulting in cancellations.

Thursday looks partly cloudy and cold with a high near freezing.  Little milder for Friday (high in the mid 30s) but still partly to mostly sunny.

Saturday into Sunday there's a chance for more substantial snow, but it's too early to pinpoint amounts (a lot depends on track and temperatures).

Stay tuned for updates!

Monsoon

Posted on Sunday, February 4, 2018 at 02:34PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

Update for Tuesday morning

Right to 't: Snow showers overnight into tomorrow morning. 3am to 1pm, on and off. Accumulation only an inch or two.

But. Due to timing and slippery sidewalks / secondary roads, there's a chance of school scheduling impacts.

Chance of delay Tuesday, Jan 30: 36.554%

Chance of cancellation: 19.632%

Looking ahead:

Rain to snow Thu night into Fri morning. Minimal impacts.

Chance of wintry mix / ice Sunday night into Monday. Going to depend on track & temperature, so stay tuned for updates.

Monsoon

Posted on Monday, January 29, 2018 at 02:09PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

Forecast for the very end of January and then right on in to February

A few scattered showers overnight and into Sunday morning.  Mostly cloudy with a high in the low 50s, then clouds breaking overnight.

Monday - clouds mixed with sun, then becoming overcast and cooler.  High in the mid 40s.  In the evening, a few rain showers are possible.  Then - after midnight and into Tuesday morning, maybe 10am - expect some scattered snow showers.  Fairly windy, too.  It appears now that accumulation will be just an inch or two.

No school delays or whatnot.

Tuesday night is a return to the chill: low of 16.  Brr.

Tuesday is January 30th.  On this day, Dick Cheney, who is still alive, and who has therefore not died, turns 77, proving that karma does not exist.

Also on this day: Phil Collins turns 67, proving that the mere mention of his name can trigger you to hear the “In the Air Tonight” drum fill in your heads.

Wednesday 1/31 will be mostly sunny with a high in the mid 30s.

Thursday 2/1 will be overcast but milder - high in the upper 40s.

Friday’s interesting.  It will precipitate.  The high only gets up to the mid 30s, but warmer air aloft will make some of that precipitation plain old rain.  I think it mixes with and changes over to snow by the late afternoon, but my preliminary analysis is that this is no biggie.

Next good chance for snow after this: I’m looking at February 6 and February 13-14.  And the period from February 21-28 is looking really active.  So yeah, more winter.

Monsoon


 

Posted on Saturday, January 27, 2018 at 08:23PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint