It's my first snow forecast of the season and I can barely contain my excitement!!!!

So there's a coastal storm on the way, and the forecast models have shifted its track to the northwest, putting it more toward the Lehigh Valley and Phila suburbs area, and increasing totals for south Jersey.

Here is what to expect.

Snow spreads southeast to northwest beginning tonight at about midnight.  (That's Saturday 12/9/17 at 00:00 for those of you on maritime/military clocks.)  So snow will begin first in south Jersey, then Wilmington, then Philly, and so on.

In Berks, look out for snow between about 8am and 3pm.  It's not going to snow steadily during that period - we are on the outer edge of the storm, so I expect impacts around here to be fairly minimal.  Expect scattered light snow showers and maybe a squall (short period of heavy, wind-driven snow) or two.

Totals:

South Jersey, 3-5 inches (mostly on grassy and untreated surfaces)

Philadelphia and suburbs, 1-3 inches (mostly on grassy and untreated surfaces)

Berks County and the Lehigh Valley, coating to an inch of snow (mostly on grassy and untreated surfaces)

Impacts:

During a squall, conditions are wack - extremely low visibility and quickly covered road surfaces.  But in general, just slow down a bit and you'll be fine.

The high on Saturday will be in the mid 30s; the overnight low will dip down to 24.

Sunday 12/10 will be mostly sunny and breezy, but an isolated squall or light snow shower cannot be ruled out in the early morning.  High 36, low 23.

There's a chance of some mixed rain and snow showers on Monday evening into Tuesday, but I don't expect that to impact morning commutes.

Thereafter:

Getting obnoxiously cold the second half of next week.  Wednesday's high will only be 30; into the lower teens at night.  Thursday, Friday, Saturday - a few degrees higher each day, but not a dramatic warmup.  Sunday 12/17 will see a high of 36 and a low of 19.

Oh - and one last thing: I would like to inaugurate a new feature on the blog: Ask Monsoon™©Ⓡ.  I invite you, my faithful readers, to send me questions (click on those words and an email will magically compose itself).  These questions can, of course, be about the weather, but they can also be about whatever topic you choose.  I am an enthusiast of many topics, and am renowned as a man who knows a little about a lot.

Stay tuned for updates!

Monsoon

Posted on Friday, December 8, 2017 at 11:15AM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

Monsoon Martin is my name. Weather forecasting is my game.

Monsoon Martin here.

Rain continues off and on Saturday and Saturday night, ending by 4 or 5am Sunday.

Gusty winds will kick up overnight. Sunday morning and afternoon will bring sustained winds of 20-30mph (gusts of 45-50mph). Briefly stated, it will be windy AF.

Mostly sunny and chilly for several days thereafter - highs generally in the mid to upper 40s, lows at or below freezing. Good fireplace weather.

MONSOON OUT.

Posted on Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 05:38PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

You may be finished with winter, but winter isn't finished with you.

I'll get right to it.

Nor'easter.  Snow begins Monday night between 10pm and midnight.  Snow is heaviest between 4am and 2pm on Tuesday, beginning to taper by 3-4pm.  We'll see snow showers Tuesday evening and overnight (and a nominal bit of additional accumulation) and maybe even some flurries on Wednesday morning.

Snow totals:

Berks, Lancaster, Lebanon, Lehigh, Montgomery Counties (as well as north Jersey and NYC),  14-18"

Philadelphia, Chester County, south Jersey, northern Delaware, 8-12"

Delaware, extreme south Jersey, 4-8" with mixed precipitation

Is this a blizzard?

Strictly speaking, a blizzard is a severe winter storm that has sustained winds of 35mph or more and visibility of under 1/4 mile for three hours or more.  We'll have winds of 15-25 mph on Tuesday morning and afternoon with gusts as high as 35-40mph, but expect visibility to be 1/4 mile or less for much of Tuesday morning and afternoon.  So it's really just semantics--whatever you call it, we'll have a sucky, cold, snowy, wind-driven hellscape that will have the following impacts:

Power outages - Since it's a heavy, wet, wind-driven snow, we'll see widespread downed trees and power lines.

Travel snafus - Don't even think about trying to drive on Tuesday morning and afternoon.  When people try anyway, there will be bad results.  And cancelled flights up and down the eastern seaboard.

School closings - A snow day is all but guaranteed for Tuesday across the region, but the good news (at least the silver lining to this bad news, which I've become an expert at finding lately) is that because of the sun angle (it's mid-March) and the end time, we might just see delays on Wednesday.  (This would change if there are widespread outages in an area or we hit - or exceed - the upper limit of those snow totals.)

Speaking of which:

Chance of delay Tuesday, 0.77%

Chance of early dismissal Tuesday, 4.22%

Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 95.01%

[Note: yes, the percentages for Tuesday add up to 100%.  You're welcome, math teachers!]

Chance of delay Wednesday, 46.13%

Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 19.12%

Looking ahead:

Windy on Wednesday; Wed and Thu are still below normal (highs in the mid 30s).  Highs slowly climb through the 40s over the weekend (when we may have some snow showers but no big) and into early next week.

Monsoon

Posted on Sunday, March 12, 2017 at 04:38PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | References1 Reference | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

SNOW DAY

So it snowed.  Most places in the area got about 4-6 inches, which you may recall as my forecasted snow total, but WHATEVS.

It'll get down to 14 degrees on Friday morning (2/10) so we may see some refreezing.

Chance of at least a delay on Friday: 41.212%

Chance of cancellation on Friday: 4.889% 

It will be a little milder this weekend - highs in the mid 40s and lows in the mid 30s.  Foggy with a shower or two on Sunday 2/12.

Two main messages I received today:

Is there a chance of more snow?  I kind of liked this snow day thing.

OR

Is there a chance of more snow?  I hate it and never want it again.

Answer: Maybe next Thursday - February 16th (snow) and February 22nd-23rd (freezing rain and sleet).  And then something in March, but that's a long way off.....

Monsoon

 

Posted on Thursday, February 9, 2017 at 04:05PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | Comments1 Comment | References3 References | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

Holy crap, a snowstorm.

It's going to snow.

Tomorrow (Wednesday 2/8) will be partly sunny with an unseasonably mild temperature getting into the upper 50s (around noon).

But then the temperature falls precipitously: 40s by 5pm, 30s by 11pm, and through the 20s all day Thursday.  (Thursday's high of 31 will actually occur just after midnight.)

Snow will fall thick and fast between about 2am and 11am, tapering to snow showers in the afternoon.

How much?  

4-6 inches in most areas, with isolated areas approaching 10!

School?  

Chance that we'll have at least a delay: 82.1%

Chance that we'll go to school and have an early D: 40%

Chance of a snow day: 71.889%

Monsoon

Posted on Tuesday, February 7, 2017 at 06:39PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | References3 References | EmailEmail | PrintPrint
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