My final delay/school closing percentages (until next winter).

Temperatures are falling quickly.  Right now (7:30pm) they range from 34 in Mount Penn to 38 in Cumru Township to 40 in Kenhorst.

So will we have sleet or snow?  And will we have a delay tomorrow?

I have already received reports of sleet mixing with the rain.  And the Doppler looks like this (see below) so there's plenty more where that came from.

I expect the precipitation to end by midnight.  Temperatures in most places will be in the lower 30s by that time, so we could see a little wet snow.  But no accumulation, nothing serious.

What's it going to be like when we're making our commute tomorrow morning?  Right around 7am?  About 26 degrees.  Winds out of the northwest at 20mph, sending wind chills into the teens.

But I don't see any travel issues.  Maybe a slick spot or two widely scattered throughout the land.

School percentages:

Chance of delay Tuesday, 16.65%

Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 2.41%

High will only be in the mid 40s with blustery conditions on Wednesday.  But temperatures rebound into the 50s on Thursday and Friday, then the 60s for the weekend.  (A few showers on Saturday should be the only blemish on an otherwise seasonably nice weekend.)

Quick shout-out to my homies over at Thug Notes.  Check out their deconstruction of multiple, unreliable narrators by (in my opinion) the greatest American cracker author.

Monsoon

Posted on Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 07:26PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

Cold front to usher in dramatic temperature change

Friends of Monsoon,

There are rumblings about the potential for [expletive deleted] on Tuesday night.  Sure, it is going to be much colder.

In fact, we're going to see temperatures drop 30 degrees in 24 hours (from 74 at 7pm Monday to 44 at 7pm Tuesday) and 45 degrees in 36 hours (74 now; 29 by 7am Wednesday).

But [frozen crap]?!  Nah.  I don't see it.  (Except for the Great Lakes and western PA, where we see the rain end as wet snow, mainly covering grassy surfaces.)

Hasselhoff April Fool's Day photobomb. Absolutely #Hoffsome.Here's what to expect:

Showers develop by Tuesday morning and continue throughout the day.  Rain will likely be heavy at times, and some places will see some late-afternoon thunderstorms move through.  Most places will see about an inch of rain all told from this.

Temperatures stay in the 60s until about noon, when the wind will shift (from southerly to westerly) and temperatures will fall through the 50s throughout the afternoon.  40s by 6 or 7pm.  Rain ends by 10 or 11pm.

Becoming rather windy overnight.  Expect temperatures to dip just below freezing (32°F) by daybreak Wednesday.

Sure is going to be chilly on Wednesday: sunny but breezy, with highs only reaching 46.  Patchy frost late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, too.

The Hoff with the gigantic model-Hoff up for auction. (Though just days ago, The Hoff called the auction house and pulled the item from the auction, saying he couldn't bear to part with it. So if you guys had decided to pitch in on it as a surprise, the dream is over.)A little milder on Thursday with temperatures reaching in to the upper 50s.  Same thing Friday.  Partly sunny both days.

The weather picture is a little muddled thereafter, but it appears that Saturday will have some scattered showers, and then Sunday will be cloudy but dry.

And I don't see it getting what I would call unpleasantly warm (highs reaching above the 70s) again until mid-May...

Stay tuned for updates!!

Monsoon

Posted on Monday, April 14, 2014 at 06:52PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

Winter Weather Advisory until Monday at 8am. (What the eff??)

Gift idea! Only $10K to get the bidding started. Check out the link at the bottom of this post.Alright, so the 75 inches of rain we got this weekend may end in some winter weather.  I know, I know.  I thought we were finished with the winter weather bull*#!@.  But no.  Places in central Pennsylvania are already seeing wet snow.  

Here's what to expect:

Temperatures will fall through the 30s overnight.  The winter weather advisory has been issued for Berks and Lehigh Counties (among other places), but I expect only the northernmost portions of these areas to be affected.  So when the winter weather advisory calls for "snow and sleet accumulations 1 to 2 inches along with a light coating of ice," I think only the highest elevations and northern areas in Berks are going to see anything like that.

So by 7 or 8am, we'll see temperatures down around freezing (32°F) with strong winds sending wind chills down into the lower 20s.

Also, with an inch and a half to two inches of rain in most places in PA (and 2 1/2 to 3 in many places in Jersey), we're seeing flooding issues and road ponding in the area.

In terms of the morning commute, the winter weather advisory says the winter weather could impact road travel, but I think the chances of that are remote (unless you're in, like, Shenandoah or Pottsville or Lehighton, or even Hamburg).  I don't see much chance for accumulating snow/sleet and do not think road surfaces will be cold enough to lead to slickness and whatnot.

Chance of delay Monday, 18%

Chance of cancellation Monday, 3%

Monday will turn out clearing but breezy; high of 54.

Tuesday and Wednesday look mostly sunny and milder still with highs both days in the mid 60s.

Cooler and rainy by the end of the week (highs in the mid 50s with rain both Thursday and Friday), but I'm thinking it clears for the weekend.

Stay tuned for whatever.

Monsoon

Check out the auction for the Hasselhoff oversized lifeguard figure.

Posted on Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 06:57PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

Winter Storm Aretha, March 25, 2014

I have christened the upcoming storm Winter Storm Aretha because March 25th is the Queen of Soul's 72nd birthday.  My favorite Aretha Franklin song is 1985's "Freeway of Love," which may make some of you wonder, "What about 'Chain of Fools'?  What about 'R-E-S-P-E-C-T'?"  No.  It's "Freeway of Love," because it asks one of the most timeless and salient questions in the history of song: "How'd you get your pants so tight?"  Bit of trivia: I used to call her "Urethra" because I thought it was hilarious.  Alright: I still do, sometimes.

Also: the song is now in your head, and for that I am sorry, but not really.

It is Sir Elton John's 67th birthday on March 25th as well.  Elton John and Aretha Franklin did work together once - a treacly 1989 duet called "Through the Storm" that was beneath both of them.

It is also Gloria Steinem's 80th birthday (!).  If you don't know who she is, we can't be friends anymore.

And it's Domenick Lombardozzi's (Herc from "The Wire") 38th birthday.

The late, great blind blues guitarist Jeff Healey was born on March 25, 1966.  He is perhaps best known for his band's residency at the Double Deuce in the Patrick Swayze tour-de-force Road House.  (Note: if you have not seen Road House, stop reading immediately and find it and watch it.)

The late sportscasting Renaissance Man and legendary loudmouth Howard Cosell was born on March 25, 1918.

Rapper Juvenile (born Terius Gray) turns 39 on March 25th.  Juvenile, perhaps best-known for his hit song "Back that Thang Up," is not to be confused with Juvenal, the imperial Roman poet of the first and second centuries whose Satires are a widely influential verse condemnation of human deviance. 

Haywood Nelson, best known for his nuanced portrayal of Dwayne on "What's Happening!!" whose catchphrases included "Hey HEY Hey," "Uh UH!" and "Friendship is a sheltering tree."  (That last one might be from somewhere else.)  He is a Scientologist, which is kind of unsettling, and is the kind of troubling detail that you have come to expect here at the blog.

And finally, talking horse Sarah Jessica Parker, best known for her role in "Sex and the City," turns 49 on March 25th.

But the snow, Monsoon.  Tell us about the snow.

Alright, here's what.

Models have been trending east, so it's looking like a we'll just get a glancing blow from this storm.

Sunny, breezy, and cold on Monday with a high of only 35.

On Tuesday, expect to see overcast conditions with scattered snow showers and flurries between about 8am and noon, steadier snow possible in isolated areas in the afternoon, and tapering snow showers/flurries by midnight.  Here's why I think this isn't a big deal:

  • The storm track is favoring an eastern solution, so there's relatively little moisture available for us.
  • The bulk of the snow will fall during the daytime, and given the sun angle, it will struggle to accumulate on paved surfaces/sidewalks.
  • The lack of dramatic phasing will prevent low pressure from intensifying and creating a major storm.

So I think we're looking at an inch or two of accumulation on cars and grassy surfaces.

School percentages:

Chance of delay Tuesday, 15%

Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 6%

Chance of early dismissal Tuesday, 23%

Chance of delay Wednesday, 31%

Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 11%

Wednesday will be cold and quite windy, with a high in the mid 30s but wind chills in the low 20s.  We'll get down to 20 overnight, which is extremely low for this time of year.

But then!

Sunny and warmer on Thursday with a high of 49.

Milder still (with variable cloudiness and a few showers) on Friday with a high of 57.

The weekend looks just dandy: highs in the upper 50s.

April begins with a day in the 60s, then we'll run into some April showers, which are so clichéd.  Rainy and cool on April 2, 3, 4, and 5.

Thereafter, a delightful spring.

Stay tuned for updates!

Monsoon

Posted on Sunday, March 23, 2014 at 02:26PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

What the hell is this crap about a snowstorm next week?!

Yes.  Spring began today, but there's a snowstorm brewing for next Tuesday.

But the vicissitudes - that's the real story here.  In the next four days, we're going to see highs in the 50s, then the 60s, then the 40s, then the 30s.

Friday 3/21: mostly sunny and seasonably pleasant with diminishing winds.  High 52, low 38.

Saturday 3/22: clouds mixed with sun; breezy and warmer.  A few scattered showers in the afternoon.  High 64, low 35.

Sunday 3/23: clearing, breezy, and noticeably colder.  High 43 (but it will feel like the 30s), low 24.

Jason deCaires Taylor, "Vicissitudes," underwater sculpture, Grenada, West Indies, 2006

Monday 3/24: clear and colder still.  High of only 36, low of 22.

Tuesday 3/25: overcast with a chance of rain and snow.  The pattern and model indications suggest a major snowstorm, but it's far too early to get a handle on it - especially a late-March storm like this, one that is so vulnerable.  If all things don't come together just right - track, arctic air, sun angle, moisture content, and so forth - this "snowstorm" will be a harmless non-event.

Colder than normal the rest of the week: highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s.  Then warmer again for the last three days of March.  Then colder again to start April.  (There's even some wintry mix action possible on April 1st and 2nd.)  

I don't see this vicissitude-ish pattern abating until about a third of the way through April.  And then: consistently milder - springlike, even - with highs in the 50s and 60s.

Stay tuned for updates!

Monsoon

Posted on Thursday, March 20, 2014 at 07:33PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint
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