monsoonmartin

Tonight we'll see some light rain showers and freezing drizzle come through the area, with the potential to create some icy spots on the roads, even those that have been cleared.  Greatest hazard is after 9pm tonight, through to around 4 or 5am.  By the morning commute (6-8am), surfaces temperatures will be a few degrees above freezing.  We could, however, encounter some fog on Monday morning, which obscures visibility and would make it more difficult to detect any lingering slick spots.  Considering all that, I'll call it:

40% chance of school delays

10% chance of school cancellation

After all that, we'll see rain developing, steady to heavy at times, throughout the day and evening Monday.  Temperatures will rise into the upper 40s and even top 50 in some places.

Tuesday looks mostly sunny, breezy and mild with highs around 50.

Wednesday and Thursday will see highs a bit lower, with the freezing rain potential returning for Thursday (stay tuned).

Beyond that, still looking at the 30th-31st for a potential ice-sleet event, as well as February 3rd to 4th for some snow!

Monsoon

It's Thursday evening here, and a bit of light snow approaches from the west.  Flurries should begin to fall around here by about 8pm and intensify into a period of light snow in the overnight hours.  The event will end by 2am or so, but roads could be coated with a thin covering of snow, which could be a bit slick in places.  Total accumulations will be only be a coating to a half-inch, but here is my call for winter weather school disruptions:

55% delay Friday

15% cancellation Friday

These are panels from a forecast model addressing Saturday's event. The right panel indicates precipitation; the left panel indicates surface temperature. Note that the pink line, which denotes the freezing mark, cuts right through Berks on Saturday evening. As I note below, it's going to be a close call in terms of precipitation type and timing...

The Saturday event is looking more and more interesting.  Snow arrives around midnight Friday night and continues through Saturday morning, tapering toward late afternoon, when it will likely mix with some rain.  We could even see a bit of light snow and sleet linger into Saturday evening as temperatures drop back below freezing.  Total accumulations will be right around 3 inches in this area with snow to ice and rain south and east.  Areas north of us, including Allentown, State College, Scranton, and the Poconos, could see 4+ inches from this event.  The wildcard here is the warmer air coming in from the south and east: how far north it creeps and how warm it gets will potentially impact the totals and precipitation types here, so stay tuned...

The next wintry weather potential on the horizon doesn't come in until January 31st - February 1st.

Monsoon

Thought I'd update you on a few wintry weather mini-events in our near future:

Today we could see flurries and scattered snow showers in the morning and early afternoon, then turning windy and colder.  No accumulation.  High 38.

Thursday will feature plenty of clouds, especially as the day goes on, and the late afternoon and evening will bring the chance of widely scattered light snow showers and flurries.  No accumulation in most places; a coating in some.  High in the mid 30s, low in the low 20s.  (Delay Friday 20%, cancellation 5%.)

Friday looks mostly sunny, breezy, and continued cold.  High 34.

Snow, later mixed with sleet, is likely late Friday overnight into Saturday, tapering by Saturday afternoon.  Right now it's looking as though we'll get, at most, an inch or two of accumulation out of this system before it ends as plain rain.  Temperatures holding at or just above freezing for most of the day.  Then Sunday looks partly sunny and milder with a high in the low 40s.

Milder next week (highs in the 40s to near 50 some days) so the precipitation we see on Tuesday-Wednesday and Friday should be all rain.

There are some indications of a pattern change for the first part of February that would bring us some actual snow...but I'm not holding my breath...

Monsoon

Today is Martin Luther King Day.  Less well-known than his civil rights work is Dr. King’s anti-war stance, which emerged strongly in the final year of his life.  This pacifist epiphany occurred when "I knew that I could never again raise my voice against the violence of the oppressed in the ghettos without having first spoken clearly to the greatest purveyor of violence in the world today, my own government."  On April 4, 1967, Dr. King delivered an address entitled “A Time to Break Silence.”  It included the following words:

"Now, it should be incandescently clear that no one who has any concern for the integrity and life of America today can ignore the present war. If America's soul becomes totally poisoned, part of the autopsy must read: Vietnam. It can never be saved so long as it destroys the deepest hopes of men the world over. So it is that those of us who are yet determined that America will be are led down the path of protest and dissent, working for the health of our land."

Exactly one year later, he was assassinated in Memphis.  James Earl Ray confessed to the murder, but theories persist that Dr. King’s nascent anti-war agitation made him a target of those who were waging that unpopular war.

Anywho.  No way to smoothly transition from MLK to the weather.

So here’s what to expect overnight:

Monday will be mostly sunny and breezy today with a high only in the mid 30s.

Rain begins overnight – by 11 or 12.  Sleet and freezing rain mix in throughout the early overnight hours, then changes to all rain by 4 or 5am.  We could see a small accumulation of ice on the roads and sidewalks overnight—so use caution when driving—but this will be washed away by morning.  Rain then tapers by late Tuesday afternoon.  (The temperatures will actually rise overnight, from 32 at 11pm to 38 by 9am.  Problem is, there’s no classic “trough” to trap to cold air into our area.)  Still, we could see a bit of the slipperiness hang around into the morning commute, so I’ll call it:

40% chance of school delays.

15% chance of school cancellation.

The high temperature will actually reach a (comparatively) balmy 46.

Wednesday looks partly sunny, quite windy, and colder, with a high of 36 and an overnight low in the upper teens.

Thursday and Friday look like more of the same, albeit with diminishing winds.  (Slight chance of snow showers Thursday night into Friday.  No big whoop.)

The weekend looks milder with highs in the low 50s, but also the chance of some (rain) showers.

Snow?  Ice?  Wintry weather?  I see nothing terribly promising through to the end of January.

Of course, all that can change rapidly, so stay tuned…

Monsoon

It's been a bleak winter for snowbirds thus far.  Let's see what Friday has in store...

Today we'll see gradual clearing in the afternoon, with some breaks of sun.  Mild temperatures with a high in the mid 50s.  Increasingly windy tonight with a few showers.  Temperatures will fall through the 40s and into the 30s by the overnight hours.

Friday morning will be interesting, but I think we'll escape major issues.  One theory has it that we could see a "flash freeze" overnight due to rapidly falling temperatures and wet roadways, but I don't see the cold air making very good time to our area.  Another theory has the cold air arriving in time for a few inches of snow to accumulate in this area.  I don't see enough moisture to warrant this theory, though. 

So: Friday will be very windy with scattered flurries and snow showers in the morning.  Sustained winds above 30mph; gusts past 50mph.  Highs in the low 30s early, falling through the 20s throughout the day.  Expect wind chills in the teens.  Could see scattered power outages from the cold and wind.

Predictions: Friday cancellation 10%; Friday delay 30%.

This weekend looks partly sunny, breezy and frigid.  High Saturday will be 33; low 18.  High Sunday will be 27, low 11.

More of the same for Monday: highs below freezing.  A weak front moves through on Tuesday evening that could bring us some snow showers, but nothing much is expected.

Keeping an eye on Saturday 1/21 for possible snow, as well as Wednesday 1/25 into Thursday 1/26 for the potential for snow and ice.  But really, it's looking like we may may it through all of January with no snow-related delays or cancellations...

Monsoon