monsoonmartin

The Tuesday-Wednesday system is looking impressive.  Snow totals will not rival those of this past weekend, but they won't be terribly far behind.  (Jeez – could we get a nice, moderate 4-6 inch snowstorm this winter?)

The storm (a bona fide Nor’easter) will actually hit us in two waves.  Here’s what to expect.  A reminder that timing and snowfall predictions are for Berks and northern Lancaster Counties unless otherwise specified.

Light snow arrives Tuesday by 5 or 6pm.  A few inches will accumulate, then there’ll be a lull early Wednesday morning.  School administrators should not be deceived by this break, however, into thinking that it’s all over with.  Quite the contrary.

The second round of precipitation will crank up around morning rush Wednesday or a bit later and continue right through Wednesday evening rush.  From this second round alone we could see 9 inches of accumulation.  Snow tapers and ends by Wednesday evening.

The second "round" of the storm, right around midday Wednesday.

But here, my snow-besieged friends, is where it really gets fun.  By mid-morning on Wednesday, the northwest winds will crank up, reaching their height (sustained winds in the 20-25mph range, gusting past 40mph) on Wednesday afternoon and evening.  What these near-blizzard conditions portend for us is blowing, drifting, extremely poor visibility, and power outages—not to mention wind chills plunging into the lower teens—right when we’re trying to clean up this mess.  This wind—plus the dumping of a foot of snow on top of the foot and a half most of us got just a few days ago—may extend delays and cancellations in Thursday.

Accumulation:

It's looking like 12-16 inches for Reading and northern Lancaster County.  A bit more toward south-central Pennsylvania in places like Columbia and York—perhaps approaching 20 inches again!  Less in north Jersey and the coasts (on the coasts, there could be a mix) and toward the Poconos—4 to 6 inches at most in these areas.

Cancellation/delay potentials:

Whew.  Stay tuned, as always, for updates on this extraordinary winter weather!

Monsoon

Tonight will be extremely cold with lows getting down into the single digits, and temperatures will only be in the teens well through Monday morning rush, so all the meltage from today will be well frozen over.  Use caution and see my cancellation/delay predictions below…

Here are some central and southeastern Pennsylvania weekend storm totals per readers:

Believe it or not, before we can even catch our collective breath from the walloping we took from the weekend blizzard, another system is poised to affect our area on Tuesday into Wednesday.  Here’s the forecast…

Snow develops mid- to late-afternoon Tuesday, light at first.  Intensifying by 8pm, then continuing overnight and into late Wednesday afternoon, tapering to scattered snow showers Wednesday evening.  (The bulk of the snowfall is early Wednesday morning through early Wednesday afternoon, and watch for high winds on Wednesday as well.)

Though model guidance is not yet in agreement, my call is that we’ll see 8 to 10 inches out of this storm—maybe even a foot.  On top of the snow totals from this weekend’s blizzard, that would be positively crippling.

Revised cancellation/delay predictions for the coming week:

Monday 2/8: Cancellation 60%; Delay 85%.  (It’s just nasty out there, and lots of roads are still snow-covered.  Many families in our districts are dealing with 1 ½ to 2 feet of snow will insufficient resources to deal with the onslaught.  Even with the melting that happened today thanks to the brilliant sunshine, frigid temperatures overnight will cause “black ice” on even the clearest of surfaces.)

Tuesday 2/9: Cancellation 10%; Delay 15%; Early dismissal 25%.  (The snow will not begin in earnest until Tuesday evening, so I don’t really see that an early dismissal will become necessary.  Then again, I didn’t think we at Mifflin would get an early dismissal on Friday, either…)

Wednesday 2/10: Cancellation 85%; Delay 20%.  (Unless the timing or storm track change dramatically, a delay just wouldn’t make sense.  A cancellation, on the other hand, would.)

Thursday 2/11: Cancellation 40%; Delay 90%.  (Wind and temperatures again in the teens overnight into Thursday could lead to a treacherous Thursday-morning commute.)

Friday 2/12: Cancellation 15%; Delay 20%.  (It’ll still be cold, but temperatures may inch above freezing.  It’s a relief, too, because otherwise Mifflin’s Act 80 full day on Friday would be disrupted…)

Stay tuned for updates/tweakage on this forecast.

Monsoon

My good people,

First, let me say that I realize the recent dramatic uptick in Hasselhovian content on my weblog may have been a little much to take--particularly as my latest Hoff post provided a nearly unfiltered gaze into the fantastical (and fanatical) workings of my mind.

And yet, I beg your indulgence for one more moment or two.

For in my internet travels, I discovered a six-part reality/documentary series called "Meet the Hasselhoffs" which ran on Britain's Living channel beginning in September 2009.  In the series, David and his Hoffspring (daughters Hayley and Taylor-Ann) travelled to England and pal around with popular British disc jockey Scott Mills, who takes them on all sorts of wild adventures.

It's all you could hope or want from such a show, and it provides a sort of preview of what we can expect from the upcoming A&E Hoff-centered reality show.  Episode 1, Part 1 appears embedded below; the further segments can be found in the related video sidebar at the YouTube page.

Monsoon

Now that’s what I call a frickin’ snowstorm.  My predictions were admittedly conservative, and it turned out that the projected totals were low by as many as six to eight inches in some places.  And New York City didn’t get a damned thing.

But wow.  Bunk has been traipsing and galumphing through shoulder-deep snow in the backyard and returning to the house with frosty little snow blossoms caked to his coat.

Snow totals, based on my own observations and unofficial reports around the region:

Allentown, extreme northern Berks, and points north, 8-12 inches

Northern Lancaster County, central and southern Berks, 18-20 inches

Philadelphia and immediate suburbs, DC, Baltimore, 24-26 inches; a bit more in some areas

Delaware, northern Maryland, extreme northern Virginia, and extreme southern Pennsylvania, well over 24 inches.  Up to 30 inches have been reported in some areas, and there have even been measurements that exceed 2 ½ feet.  Boggles the mind.

[Please email me with your storm totals and locations and I’ll post them on my next weblog entry.]

The view out my window toward the deck at 7:30 this morning, before the snow was even finished

Even though the snow has ended across the forecast area by mid-afternoon Saturday, ongoing problems from this storm will be continuing strong winds, which will result in drifting (we have a couple of two-foot drifts here at Monsoon Central), collapsed roofs, downed power lines, and fallen limbs, trees and shrubbery.  The temperature will dip into the lower teens tonight, sending the accumulated snowfall into a deep freeze.

Sunday 2/7: partly sunny with moderate winds; high 29, low 11.

Monday 2/8: plenty of sunshine and cold; high 32, low 16.

Tuesday 2/9: cloudy with snow possible (discussed below); high 31, low 25.

Wednesday 2/10: cloudy with considerable winds and lingering snow possible (see below); high 28, low 19.

Thursday 2/11 and Friday 2/12: partly to mostly sunny and milder with highs in the mid 30s and lows in the upper teens.

Saturday 2/13: a bit of snow possible, but nothing like this monster.

A bit of a thaw may be in store by the 20^th to the 22^nd.

Most forecasters (including this one) have been paying little attention to the Tuesday-Wednesday event, having been preoccupied for some days with this blizzard.  But on first blush, here’s my call: the snow begins Tuesday afternoon and continues intermittently through the evening and overnight.  Some flurries or snow showers may linger into Wednesday.  The snow will not be nearly as heavy as the event that just wrapped up, but I think it’ll leave 4 to 6 inches of accumulation in Berks and northern Lancaster Counties.

All of this—the blizzard, the drifting, the historic storm totals, and the midweek storm—make for a potentially shaky schedule this week.  Here are my calls…

Monday 2/8: Cancellation 60%; Delay 80%.  (I can see the buses trying to navigate some of the far reaches of my district, unplowed and heavily drifted, and it’s not pretty.)

Tuesday 2/9: Cancellation 30%; Delay 15%; Early Dismissal 40%.

Wednesday 2/10: Cancellation 55%; Delay 75%.

Thursday 2/11: Cancellation 10%; Delay 20%.

As always, stay tuned for updates!

Monsoon

Arrival looks like 2-3pm (and then it will be light, wet snow that will—since surface temps will be above freezing—melt on contact with the roadway).  The real driving hazards will come in the evening when the temperature drops below freezing and black ice develops—and, of course, when the snow intensifies toward 7-8pm.  Heaviest snow in our area will fall overnight, from about 12midnight to 4am.  Snow is over by about 6 or 7pm Saturday evening.

Considering all that, I’m downgrading the chance of an early school dismissal for the Reading-Lancaster area to 25%.  (If we were in Virginia or even Maryland, I think we’d be getting out early.)

A blizzard is defined by the National Weather Service as a storm sustained winds or frequent gusts of at least 35mph, resulting in drifting snow and less than a quarter-mile visibility for more than three hours.  We’ll have winds of 15-20mph with gusts up to 30mph overnight and into Saturday morning, so that nearly qualifies.  (Places closer to the shores will have actual blizzard conditions due to strong coastal winds.)  Visibility will be a problem too.

Projected storm totals:

Delaware, Maryland, Baltimore-D.C. area…20-24 inches.

Philadelphia, southern Chester and Lancaster Counties, central Jersey…          14-18 inches.

Philadelphia’s northern and western suburbs, Reading and Berks, northern Lancaster County, York and Harrisburg…8-12 inches.

Allentown and northern New Jersey, as well as New York City…6 inches.

Poconos and extreme north Jersey…2-4 inches.

Totals may be higher in some spots due to “thundersnow” or heavy bands of precipitation in which 2-3 inches may fall in a single hours.  And in any case, depth will be difficult to ascertain given the extensive drifting.

I will send storm updates this weekend as necessary…

Have fun and please—consider staying off the roads for tonight and much of tomorrow if you can.  If you must drive, use the utmost caution.

Monsoon