In honor of the goddamned color-shifting dress that mesmerized my students so maddeningly today, I have included some optical illusions herein. (Seriously, if they brought one-tenth of the ardor and critical thinking to their study of literature that they brought to bear on justifying whether they saw white/gold or blue/black, I would be as happy as a howler monkey with two figs and a wooden nickel.)
Here's what's happening with the weather.
Climatologically, it's getting on toward spring. (Meteorological winter ends on Saturday, and actual winter ends on March 20th.) So the angle of the sun's rays is becoming an issue that we must consider when forecasting.
But here's the thing: winter is not leaving.
For example, tonight it's getting down to 3, with wind chills dipping below zero.
Saturday will be sunny but cold, with a high only getting up to 26. (Normal highs for this time of year are in the mid 40s.) Then it gets down to 4 on Saturday night.
Sunday will be overcast with a high of about 30. Oh, and it's going to snow. Not a whole lot, as the heavier amounts will fall well north of us. Expect scattered snow showers from about 1pm to 6pm Sunday, then a few periods of steadier snow between 6pm and 10pm. The event ends as sleet/ice between 2 and 6am. Maybe a bit of rain early Monday morning, too.
Travel impacts: Sunday night and Monday morning's commute look messy.
Chance of delay Monday, 64%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 11%
Monday gets up to 40, but it'll be pretty windy.
Tuesday into Wednesday brings another chance for wintry weather, but right now that's looking like a wet snow-to-rain event. It's a storm that will be long in duration, but the travel impacts and accumulations will be negligible.
On Wednesday it will get up to 46! All the way to 46. And then colder, but not frigid.
High Thursday will be 40. Friday will be around the same.
The following weekend--Saturday 3/7 and Sunday 3/8--will be gorgeous: sunny with highs in the mid 40s. Yeah!!
That's it, then. I don't see any more of the pipe-bursting, battery-killing, sac-shriveling cold that has plagued us, lo these many weeks.
Stay tuned for updates!
It got above freezing today! Yeah. And then tonight it's going to get really cold again. 30 by midnight, 20s overnight, middle teens by tomorrow morning's commute (wind chill, -2). Only getting up to about 20 Monday afternoon (wind chill, 2).
Chance of delay Monday, 41%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 6%
Overnight from Monday to Tuesday, we'll get down to 1. Not really windy, but still.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 36%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 4%
Tuesday only gets up to 21.
Late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, we could see some light snow showers, but nothing disruptive or notable. I mean, I just noted it, but that's it now. Move on already.
Chance of delay Wednesday, 29%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 18%
Wednesday will get above freezing.
Then Thursday, cold again. *sad face emoji*
A little less frigid for the weekend, but Saturday night into Sunday could bring more snow.
Stay tuned for updates!
Saturday will be cold to start - down to 0 overnight. The good news is that it won't be windy, and the temperature will rise steadily from that 0 to 20 by noon, 30 by midnight, and 40 by Sunday afternoon.
Then it gets really, really cold again. High on Monday is only 18, and it's windy. Low overnight from Monday to Tuesday is -1.
You know what, winter? You can go to hell.
Let me talk about the snowstorm on Saturday. Some flurries and snow showers by late Saturday morning, but the snow doesn't really get going until 2pm. Snow won't be constant, but could fall heavily at times. We will likely see some mixing (sleet) as the surface temperatures rise to and above freezing - that's 10pm to midnight Saturday night.
So I see the most hazardous travel times (the times when you don't want to go out unless you have to) as 6pm Saturday to 2am Sunday.
Some mixed snow and rain showers will continue into the overnight hours, ending by midmorning Sunday.
Accumulations will be in the 3-5 inch range, with conditions getting slushy and soppy on Sunday.
Overnight Sunday into Monday, we get down to 18, so all that rain/slush/sop will freeze. And that's bad.
Monday, as I mentioned earlier, will be cold.
And then snow is still possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, so that could be an issue.
It's cold the rest of the week, and then it looks like Sunday 3/1 into Monday 3/2 could bring another winter weather event.
Hey, mother ... nature, meteorological winter runs from Dec 1st through Feb 28th. So stop this shit already, huh?
Starting on Tuesday 3/3, I see an improvement: highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s. It will feel like a g.d. heatwave.
Preliminary percentages for next week:
Delay Monday (due to freezing), 29%
Cancellation Monday, 11%
Delay Tuesday (due to ass-coldness), 44%
Cancellation Tuesday, 16%
Delay Wednesday (due to more g.d. snow), 65%
Cancellation Wednesday, 38%
Stay tuned for updates!
I see a couple of quick snow showers around 9 or 10 tonight. Some areas could see heavier and steadier snow briefly, which could cause travel hazards. But just a little coating from this. Maybe 3/8 of an inch in a few places. Nothing more.
In honor of the SNL 40th anniversary, I interrupt this forecast for a clip of David Hasselhoff on SNL's Weekend Update:
During Thursday morning's commute, it will be about 10 degrees with moderate winds, making it feel like -10. In fact, we're not going to escape the negative wind chills all day Thursday.
Chance of delay Thursday, 31%
Chance of cancellation Thursday, 4%
Then Friday morning, who-wee. During the Friday morning commute, we're looking at a temperature of -3 with a wind chill of -75.
Sorry, I meant -25. At -75, you would be proper screwed, frostbite-wise, in about five minutes. At least with a wind chill of -25, you've got about 30 minutes before that shit sets in.
Negative wind chills don't leave us until late Friday afternoon--but then only briefly, as the sun will go down. Fortunately, the winds will die down, so by Saturday morning the temperature will be 5 but the wind chill will still be above zero.
Chance of delay Friday, 86%
Chance of cancellation Friday, 59%
The weekend looks all messed up. Snow Saturday afternoon mixes with rain overnight, then continues as rain on Sunday, then ends as snow Sunday night. It's off-and-on action, so I don't expect high totals or major travel issues with this. Windy and colder on Monday.
Chance of delay Monday, 35%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 17%
Looking ahead, there is a snowstorm possible on Wednesday 2/25.
Stay tuned for updates!
So I won't.
The big winners for this storm were parts of Delaware and South Jersey with 6-7 inches. We had 3.7 here in Reading, and some heavy bands went through Bucks and Montgomery Counties (where 5-6 inches fell). Philly got 4-5.
Here's what to expect over the next week:
First, be on the lookout for "black ice" this evening as temperatures head down into the teens. Little bit of trivia for you: the term "black ice" was coined by the first Grand Wizard of the Ku Klux Klan, Nathan Bedford Forrest, when his horse slipped on an icy patch, pitching Forrest into a briar patch.
None of that is true. (Well, the first sentence about watching for black ice tonight - that's true.) But "black ice" - I think that term came from the fact that it's a thin veneer of ice through which the macadam (usually black) can be seen.
Wednesday brings us a day of increasing cloudiness with flurries or scattered light snow showers between 2pm and 9pm. A few heavier squalls (not "squaws," a derogatory term for a Native American woman) are possible, especially around 4 or 5. A squall is a period of heavy, blowy snow brought about by the invasion of cold air aloft, which is what's happening here.
Overnight Wednesday into Thursday, temperatures will drop from 20 around 6pm to 10 during the Thursday morning commute. Winds will also increase during that period--though we won't see the high winds we saw on Sunday. Still, wind chills on Thursday morning will dip just below zero.
Thursday will be plenty sunny but COLD as arctic balls of ... crystal ... coldness. I got nothing. High on Thursday will be 12, with wind chills in the negative single digits throughout the day.
Friday will start out so, so cold. Like, absurdly cold. We're-being-punished-for-something cold. During the Friday morning commute, the temperature will be -3 and the wind chill will be in the -25 range. I don't even know what to say anymore. Mercy...? Uncle...?
Friday then turns out to be 12 and sunny and windy and ouch.
Cold on Saturday morning again with a temperature of -1, but far less windy, so there's that.
Saturday turns out less frigid (high of 28) but snow is possible in the afternoon and evening. Not huge accumulations, but nasty in terms of travel hazards.
Snow and rain possible on Sunday, but milder (highs around 40!).
And then colder on Monday and Tuesday here we go again g.d. son of a b.
Chance of delay Wednesday 2/18, 21%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday 2/18, 10%
Chance of early dismissal Wednesday 2/18, 22%
Chance of delay Thursday 2/19, 16%
Chance of cancellation Thursday 2/19, 7%
Chance of delay Friday 2/20, 77%
Chance of cancellation Friday 2/20, 36%
Stay tuned for updates!