The First Day of Spring Winter Storm 2018

Yep, you read that right: on the first day of spring, we're likely going to get an extended period of wintry weather.

This is a tough forecast because of the time of the year (in mid to late March, it has to snow very heavily to accumulate on roads during the daylight hours) and because there are a lot of "moving parts," meteorologically speaking.

For now, I'm leaning toward at least some snowfall between late Monday night and early Wednesday morning.  Duration and impacts depend heavily on track and other factors, and the forecasting models have been trending away from a long, snowy solution.  But I have a hunch the models will trend back toward a wintry solution as we near the event.

So for now, I'm just telling you what might happen, but I am declining to give a definitive forecast as of yet.

Stay tuned for updates as the picture becomes clearer Sunday and Monday.


Posted on Saturday, March 17, 2018 at 03:57PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

CRAP hold on.

Little bit of a snowstorm headed our way.  Not much, but it could impact the Tuesday commute.

Here's what to expect:

Snow showers (mixed with rain) develop Monday afternoon by 4 or 5pm.  Rain gives way to all snow; more frequent snow showers from around 9pm Monday and 8am Tuesday.  Some areas could see a few squalls (short periods of intense snowfall and wind) overnight.  Accumulation only an inch or two.

Becoming windy and raw throughout the day with a widely scattered snow shower or two possible through Wednesday morning.  Keep an eye on the Doppler.  Road conditions will be mostly fine, but can deteriorate rapidly in a squall.

School impacts:

Chance of early dismissal Monday, 3.79%

Chance of delay Tuesday, 29.45%

Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 8.83%

Chance of delay Wednesday, 12.06%

Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 1.12%

Stay tuned for updates!


Posted on Sunday, March 11, 2018 at 05:18PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

Monday 3/12 storm

Hi there.

I've been leaning this way, and models are increasingly in agreement: this coastal storm will be a "miss" for us.

Two emperor penguins, DJ Chillfeet (L) and MC Ice Barz, pose for cover shots ahead of their debut mixtape, All About Da Waddle, which drops on April 1.Goes to our south.  Way to our south.

There's a slight chance of widely scattered snow showers on Monday afternoon and evening, but did you notice the modifiers I used there?  I said "slight" and "widely scattered," so most of us will see nothing.

So just for shits and giggles, here's the forecast for the next week or so:

Sunday 3/11, lots of sunshine and less windy with a high in the mid 40s.  Overnight low in the mid 20s.

Monday 3/12, more clouds than sun and SNOW SNOW SNOW!!! jk.  High around 40.  Overnight low in the mid 20s.

Tuesday 3/13, partly to mostly cloudy and becoming windier with a high in the low 40s.  Could be a stray snow shower.  Overnight low in the mid 20s.

Wednesday 3/14, cooler and sunny.  High only in the upper 30s, which is low for this time of year.  Overnight low in the upper 20s.

Thursday 3/15, more sunshine and a bit milder with highs in the mid 40s.  But just ask Julius Caesar - anything can happen on this day.  Keep your head on a swivel, for sure for sure.

Friday 3/16, sunny and even milder with temperatures climbing into the low 50s.

Next weekend looks milder (upper 50s) but with rain possible on Sunday 3/18.

The following week looks seasonably lovely with afternoon highs in the 50s and overnight lows only getting into the mid to upper 30s.

So have we seen the last of the----

No.  Afraid not.



Posted on Saturday, March 10, 2018 at 02:35PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

After the storm

Hi there.

So the storm shifted east, and I could explain why using meteorological jargon, but you don't care.  You may not even be reading this anymore.  I can't blame you. 

Just one more thing: wanted to give my school closing meter for Thursday 3/8.

For Berks County schools:

Chance of delay Thursday, 31.57%

Chance of cancellation Thursday, 11.34%

The Sunday-Monday coastal storm is trending as a miss for us (out to sea).

Thundersnow in NJ!  (Clip below.)

Stay tuned for updates!


Posted on Wednesday, March 7, 2018 at 07:01PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

Updated forecast for Wednesday 3/7/18

Right to it.

First, I will present the forecast for the Reading/Berks area.  (Also applies to Lehigh Valley.)

Rain showers begin by 5-6pm on Tuesday.  Changeover to all snow by 11-12pm.  The most intense/heavy snowfall will be Wednesday from about noon-5pm.  Tapers by 9-11pm.  Could even be some stray flurries and snow showers on Thursday morning.

Accumulation: 8-12 inches.  Maybe even a bit more in isolated areas.

My concern is that areas affected by power outages last Friday (some of whom still don't have it back on) may be impacted more severely by this storm.  If you imagine a Venn diagram with that encompasses those slammed by last Friday's storm and those that are in the bull's eye for this storm, hunker down, guys. 

School impacts:

Chance of school delay on Wednesday, 7.82% (wouldn't make much sense)

Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 96.23% (if there is school)

Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 79.27%

Chance of delay on Thursday, 61.55%

Chance of cancellation on Thursday, 43.11%

Forecast for areas other than Berks:

NYC and north Jersey (including Nutley), a bit more mixed precipitation, but still impressive totals of 7-9 inches.  Snow doesn't get going til overnight Tuesday-Wednesday.

Lititz and Lancaster are right on the edge of this system.  Same with Kirkwood and Gap.  Just snow showers with 2-3 inches of accumulation.

Harrisburg and Shippensburg, definite outliers.  Scattered rain and snow showers will give way to more frequent periods of snow on Wednesday afternoon.  Only about 1-2 inches.

State College, you get snow showers on and off between Tuesday night and Wednesday night, but nothing that will accumulate or be problematic.

Philadelphia and immediate suburbs, 4-6 inches.  (Isolated areas and higher-elevation areas get a little more.)  A bit more mixing.  Kinda windy, but nothing approaching what we had last Friday.

Princeton, NJ, pretty much the same accumulation as Berks and Lehigh.  About 8-12 inches.  Kinda windy.

Toms River, NJ, a wintry mix accumulating 2-3 inches.  Unlike other places, the Jersey Shore and South Jersey will be impacted by sleet.  So that will make things treacherous.

As always, please send your snow reports and travel impacts to me via email.

Stay tuned for updates.


Posted on Monday, March 5, 2018 at 08:04PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint
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