Here’s an update on the storm I have christened GobbleBlock 2014©®™. A final call (if necessary) will be issued late Tuesday night.
There are a number of factors here:
- time of year (late November rather than January)
- speed of the storm (it’s going to zip through)
- warm surface temperatures prior to the storm (70s on Monday, 50s Tuesday)
- little indication that there will be heavy mesoscale banding with this storm
- less than impressive temperature gradients
So what does this all mean? Here’s what to expect on Wednesday 11/26/14:
Rain begins by 7 or 8am. Changes to snow by 10 or 11am. Heaviest snow likely between 2 and 4pm. Snow tapers by 8 or 9pm.
Temperatures will be in the mid 30s all day, falling below freezing by 9 or 10pm. Thanksgiving Day looks partly sunny and dry with highs in the mid 30s.
- 2-3 inches in Berks and Lehigh Counties
- 3-5 inches in the Poconos and north Jersey
- 1-2 inches in Philly and its immediate suburbs
- coating to an inch places south and east of Philly – so if you’re travelling, the roads should just be wet
- Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 22%
- Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 44.75%
The snow will be wet and heavy, so when it snows, the road will get tightly packed with snow, and will therefore be slippery. Worst time to be on the road is anytime between noon and 6pm. Thereafter we should see tapering, but be careful of icy/slick spots in the evening due to dropping temperatures and the darkness. Oh, and the winds. So yeah, maybe don’t go out Wednesday night either.
Flights will be delayed and cancelled, I am sorry to say – particularly those flying in or out of areas affected by the rain/snow/wind/low ceilings (Philadelphia, NYC, Newark, and Boston). By late Thursday morning, most of this should be cleared out and travel (by car, plane, bicycle, or foot) will be getting back to normal.
On Thursday, the Eagles will beat the Cowboys by a score of 34-17.
Have a good holiday and, if you are travelling, be careful.
"Don’t call it a comeback / I been here for years / Rockin’ my peers and puttin’ suckas in fear / Makin’ the tears rain down like a monsoon / Listen to the bass go boom / Explosion, overpowerin’ / Over the competition, I’m towerin’."
That’s LL Cool J, right there. Ladies Love Cool James. 24 years ago. Man.
Anyway, guys, thank you, for real, for your emails and words of concern when I said I was taking a hiatus. What I’ve realized, though, is that I am a forecaster. And forecasters gotta forecast. It’s not even like a choice. It’s like … a destiny and shit.
So there’s a low pressure system due to track up the east coast Tuesday night into Wednesday, which is the busiest travel day of the year. It’s a Nor’easter, and rumors are swirling that it could produce eight to twelve inches of accumulation and travel miseries aplenty.
Back up the wagon, there, Hoss. Put the horses back in the barn. Pry your chaps out your crack. So forth.
Here’s what I think:
Precipitation starts as rain on Wednesday morning about 7-9am. Surface temperatures will be in the mid 30s at this point, rising to the upper 30s by noon. Then temperatures will begin to fall; how quickly they do so and how pervasive that cold is in the atmosphere will determine how nasty it will get. (Storm track as well. This will all become clearer in the next few days.)
I think we begin seeing wet snow mixing in by 2pm. Travel through mid-afternoon will be mostly problem-free. The rain, which will be heavy at times, may cause some delays (particularly in roadways prone to flooding and for airlines, where low ceilings could pose a problem), but generally, travel should be fine.
Even when wet snow begins to mix in with the rain—and even when it begins to proper snow, as the cold air aloft makes its way down the column of air—the roads will just be wet. Any afternoon accumulations will be on grassy and unpaved surfaces.
Wednesday evening is when you don’t want to be out and about so much. From 6pm to about 11pm it will be snowing, and it will be a wet, obnoxious snow that will reduce visibility to about 2 ½ feet. So travel delays on Wednesday from dinnertime on will be fairly widespread (driving or flying).
And then the wet snow tapers to flurries and snow showers, ending by about 6am Thursday.
- South Jersey, Delaware – an inch of accumulated wet snow at most
- Philly, central Jersey – a wet inch; two inches at most
- Chester County, Berks, Allentown, Montgomery County – one to three inches
- Chance of cancellation Wednesday: 6%
- Chance of early dismissal Wednesday: 18%
Full forecast for the coming week (and beyond) appears below. But if you really only care about Wednesday’s thing, then stop reading.
Monday 11/24: rain overnight, heavy at times, tapering by 8 or 9am. Temperatures rising into the upper 60s behind that front. Windy, too, in the afternoon, but it won’t be a brisk type of wind from the northwest; it will be a soupy wind from the south-southeast, like a mouthbreathing creeper respiring on your neck on the subway.
Tuesday 11/25: sunny and seasonable. Getting windier and chillier as the day goes on. Early high near 50, but then fall through the 40s into the 30s in the evening.
Wednesday 11/26: the thing I talked about above with the rain and the wet snow and whatnot. Look at it.
Thursday 11/27: Some flurries possible early, then turning sunny and breezy. High about 40.
Friday 11/28: Cloudy to start, then clearing. Highs only in the mid 30s.
The weekend: highs in the lower 40s. Overnight lows in the 20s.
Do you see any snow on the horizon? Nah. I actually see a bit of a warming trend, with highs in the 40s or even 50s for the first half of December. Next windows I am looking at include December 14-15 and December 20-21. And December 24-25!
Stay tuned for updates!
Temperatures are falling quickly. Right now (7:30pm) they range from 34 in Mount Penn to 38 in Cumru Township to 40 in Kenhorst.
So will we have sleet or snow? And will we have a delay tomorrow?
I have already received reports of sleet mixing with the rain. And the Doppler looks like this (see below) so there's plenty more where that came from.
I expect the precipitation to end by midnight. Temperatures in most places will be in the lower 30s by that time, so we could see a little wet snow. But no accumulation, nothing serious.
What's it going to be like when we're making our commute tomorrow morning? Right around 7am? About 26 degrees. Winds out of the northwest at 20mph, sending wind chills into the teens.
But I don't see any travel issues. Maybe a slick spot or two widely scattered throughout the land.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 16.65%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 2.41%
High will only be in the mid 40s with blustery conditions on Wednesday. But temperatures rebound into the 50s on Thursday and Friday, then the 60s for the weekend. (A few showers on Saturday should be the only blemish on an otherwise seasonably nice weekend.)
Quick shout-out to my homies over at Thug Notes. Check out their deconstruction of multiple, unreliable narrators by (in my opinion) the greatest American cracker author.
Friends of Monsoon,
There are rumblings about the potential for [expletive deleted] on Tuesday night. Sure, it is going to be much colder.
In fact, we're going to see temperatures drop 30 degrees in 24 hours (from 74 at 7pm Monday to 44 at 7pm Tuesday) and 45 degrees in 36 hours (74 now; 29 by 7am Wednesday).
But [frozen crap]?! Nah. I don't see it. (Except for the Great Lakes and western PA, where we see the rain end as wet snow, mainly covering grassy surfaces.)
Here's what to expect:
Showers develop by Tuesday morning and continue throughout the day. Rain will likely be heavy at times, and some places will see some late-afternoon thunderstorms move through. Most places will see about an inch of rain all told from this.
Temperatures stay in the 60s until about noon, when the wind will shift (from southerly to westerly) and temperatures will fall through the 50s throughout the afternoon. 40s by 6 or 7pm. Rain ends by 10 or 11pm.
Becoming rather windy overnight. Expect temperatures to dip just below freezing (32°F) by daybreak Wednesday.
Sure is going to be chilly on Wednesday: sunny but breezy, with highs only reaching 46. Patchy frost late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, too.
A little milder on Thursday with temperatures reaching in to the upper 50s. Same thing Friday. Partly sunny both days.
The weather picture is a little muddled thereafter, but it appears that Saturday will have some scattered showers, and then Sunday will be cloudy but dry.
And I don't see it getting what I would call unpleasantly warm (highs reaching above the 70s) again until mid-May...
Stay tuned for updates!!
Alright, so the 75 inches of rain we got this weekend may end in some winter weather. I know, I know. I thought we were finished with the winter weather bull*#!@. But no. Places in central Pennsylvania are already seeing wet snow.
Here's what to expect:
Temperatures will fall through the 30s overnight. The winter weather advisory has been issued for Berks and Lehigh Counties (among other places), but I expect only the northernmost portions of these areas to be affected. So when the winter weather advisory calls for "snow and sleet accumulations 1 to 2 inches along with a light coating of ice," I think only the highest elevations and northern areas in Berks are going to see anything like that.
So by 7 or 8am, we'll see temperatures down around freezing (32°F) with strong winds sending wind chills down into the lower 20s.
Also, with an inch and a half to two inches of rain in most places in PA (and 2 1/2 to 3 in many places in Jersey), we're seeing flooding issues and road ponding in the area.
In terms of the morning commute, the winter weather advisory says the winter weather could impact road travel, but I think the chances of that are remote (unless you're in, like, Shenandoah or Pottsville or Lehighton, or even Hamburg). I don't see much chance for accumulating snow/sleet and do not think road surfaces will be cold enough to lead to slickness and whatnot.
Chance of delay Monday, 18%
Chance of cancellation Monday, 3%
Monday will turn out clearing but breezy; high of 54.
Tuesday and Wednesday look mostly sunny and milder still with highs both days in the mid 60s.
Cooler and rainy by the end of the week (highs in the mid 50s with rain both Thursday and Friday), but I'm thinking it clears for the weekend.
Stay tuned for whatever.
Check out the auction for the Hasselhoff oversized lifeguard figure.