Upgraded call on Spring Storm
Monday, March 19, 2018 at 08:35PM
Monsoon Martin

So there are still two phases to this storm, and the first phase will still be minor.  But the second phase, less minor.

Phase 1 begins early Tuesday afternoon and continues through 8 or 9pm.  Expect on and off light snow and rain showers.  Negligible accumulation and, since it's falling during the day, no accumulation on road surfaces.

Phase 2 begins by 5 or 6am Wednesday and continues throughout the morning and afternoon, tapering by 8-9pm.  With this wave, we'll see accumulations of 6-8" (or more in isolated areas) generally in Berks, Lancaster, and Lehigh Valley.  What is working against us in this storm is the fact that there will be mixing; the angle of the sun is sharper; and it's a very wet snow so there will be compacting.  In the dead of winter, this would be a 16-20" storm.  For mid to late March, it's less impressive and disruptive.

Philly and immediate suburbs will be around the same accumulation.  They'll get more moisture, but there will be more mixing, so that'll cancel out.

Given the heavy snowfall rates expected on Wednesday (especially late morning and early afternoon), as well as ice accrual, I expect to see widespread travel issues across the region.

Watch for coastal flooding and beach erosion at the Jersey Shore.

Watch for limbs/trees/power lines falling due to heavy snow and wind, though as noted in the last forecast, the wind will not be as fierce as it was in the last coastal storm.

Impacts:

Chance of delay Tuesday, 3.15%

Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 5.01%

Chance of early dismissal Tuesday, 31.34%

Chance of delay Wednesday, 36.88%

Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 55.79%

Stay tuned for uhhhhhh WHEN WILL THIS WINTER END

Monsoon

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