Update on the Coastal Storm

Hi!

The forecast models have shifted a bit, so I need to adjust my forecast accordingly.

First, the winds are going to be more intense than I said in the previous forecast.  Sustained winds above 30mph by Friday afternoon, with gusts as high as 60mph!  That's tropical storm strength, tiptoeing toward category 1 hurricane strength.

So you'll want to bring in your garbage cans, bins, garden accoutrements -- anything that can become a projectile in high winds.

The second change is the start time for the snowfall - heavy, wet snow will start mixing in around 1 or 2pm.  Accumulations will be negligible around here (an inch or two at most) and most paved surfaces will just be wet.  BUT - and in the immortal words of P. W. Herman, "Everyone I know has a big 'but'" - the snow could be heavy at times during Friday afternoon, and when this happens, roadways can become covered and slippery quite rapidly.

Add the high winds and we're talking about near-blizzard conditions.

I would expect to see some power outages from this beast.

I am also adding a school closing meter for this storm:

Chance of cancellation Friday, 2.31%

Chance of early dismissal Friday, 27.92%

Stay tuned for updates and be sure to report road conditions, outages, and whatnot to me on the email.

Monsoon

Posted on Thursday, March 1, 2018 at 01:47PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

Coastal Storm to Kick Off March

Thursday 3/1 starts with some sun, but clouds roll in rapidly.  Rain and drizzle start by early afternoon.  Heaviest rain is Thursday evening and overnight.  Rain and showers continue through Friday morning and even to early Friday evening.  

Temperatures: 50 Thursday afternoon, mid 40s overnight, and around 40 steadily on Friday.  When temperatures dip into the mid 30s -- this happens around 10-11pm Friday night -- precipitation will just be winding up.  There's the possibility of up to 1/2 inch of wet snow on the "back end" of the storm.  But given the relatively mild surfaces temperatures recently and the light/scattered nature of these showers, the snow will just melt on paved surfaces and is nothing at all to worry about.

Speaking of snow: if this system were snow, using a 10:1 snow ratio, and considering most of us will be getting an inch and a half or more of rain, we are dodging a 15-20 inch snow dump here.

Watch out for flooding, especially in areas that already have swollen rivers and creeks.

The wind: picks up overnight.  10mph 6 or 7am Friday.  Sustained winds over 20mph by noon Friday.  Gusts over 40mph by late Friday afternoon and evening.  Winds don't die down until Saturday afternoon and evening.

So is this it?

I'm looking at 3/10 and 3/14-15 for wintry weather potential.  But these are outside chances.

Stay tuned for updates!

Monsoon

Posted on Wednesday, February 28, 2018 at 07:12PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

Update on Saturday's storm

Hi.

I stand by everything in my previous forecast (posted yesterday - Thursday 2/15).

A goatlet (that's what a small goat is called - look it up) jumps onto and offa a capybara (which means "chunky chipmunk" in Portuguese). It makes me happy.Except the part that says "2-3 inches of wet snow at most."  This will still be a wet snow, but right around here (Berks, Lehigh, points north) looks like the "sweet spot" that could get 4-5 inches.

Time frame on this quick-moving storm is from 5-6pm Saturday to about 1-2am Sunday.  So avoid travel during that window if at all possible.

Monsoon

 

Posted on Friday, February 16, 2018 at 03:19PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

Saturday, February 17th, 2018

When I said there was "nothing hinky coming," I suppose I spoke too soon.

Although we're in for a bit of snow on Saturday, it's not a major storm.

Here's what I think (as of Thursday 2/15, noonish):

It's going to get progressively cloudier throughout the day today, but really mild - high near 60.  Expect rain after about 7 or 8pm, continuing overnight into Friday morning.  Since the temperatures will stay in the mid 50s (even overnight), we're not at all concerned with freezing action with this.

On Friday we'll see the temperature drop throughout the day: 50s during the morning commute, 40s in the afternoon (with increasing winds), 30s in the evening (with diminishing winds), 20s overnight.

Happy 93rd birthday on February 17th to one of my favorite actors, Hal Holbrook. He is best-known for his critically acclaimed one-man stage show portraying Mark Twain - and, of course, his pivotal role as background informant "Deep Throat" in the film All the President's Men.Saturday starts out clear and sunny, but clouds up toward mid-afternoon as a fast-moving front approaches.  Expect snow (wet, and maybe mixed with some rain at the start) by 4 or 5pm.  The bulk of the snow should be from about 7pm Saturday to about 2am Sunday.

Accumulation: 2-3 inches of wet snow at most.  Some slippery spots, but the relatively warm ground temperatures recently will help minimize this problem.

So the storm may impact your plans on Saturday evening and Sunday morning, but the bulk of the weekend remains viable for errands and outdoor merriment.

Sunday turns out sunny with a high in the mid 40s.

And then back up to the 60s by Tuesday and Wednesday!  So any snowfall will be outta here quickly.

As this storm gets closer, its actual track/impacts/accumulation will become clearer, so stay tuned for updates!

Monsoon

Posted on Thursday, February 15, 2018 at 12:16PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

It's the middle of February and highs are in the 40s-50s-60s - so is winter over?

Nah brah.

But there's nothing hinky coming, so that's good.

Hey there, crazy eyes! Happy birthday.First, let me wish a happy 57th birthday to Henry Rollins (born Henry Lawrence Garfield).  For those of you unfamiliar with him, he was the lead singer of the punk band Black Flag, has made a bunch of kick-ass albums with his eponymous solo band, and tours relentlessly doing "spoken word" pieces that are one part political rant, one part observational humor, and two parts masterful storytelling.  In this brief clip, Henry talks to Stephen Colbert about the value of anger.

The weather, though.

Wednesday, February 14th: sunny to start, high near 50.  Rain later.  But only rain.  Overnight low in the lower 40s.

Thursday will be foggy and variably cloudy.  Rainy at night.  Unseasonably mild: high in the lower 60s, low in the upper 40s.

Friday will be a day of contrasts: rainy to start with a high in the 50s; low Friday night all the way down to the mid 20s.

Sunny and cold on Saturday 2/17 with a high in the mid 30s.  Chance of snow showers overnight Saturday into Sunday, but no accumulation or travel impacts.  

Mid-40s and partly cloudy on Sunday.  Similar action on Monday.

Tuesday 2/20 and Wednesday 2/21 will be very similar to the next couple of days: mild (highs in the mid to upper 50s) with rain and drizzle, and foggy dampness, and what have you.

And then cooler again on Thursday.  Sunny with a high in the low to mid 40s.

So wait, Monsoon.  We're almost to the end of February in this forecast.  No snow to speak of.  I told you winter was over. 

Not so fast, Skippy.

The period from February 28th through March 8th looks unseasonably cold and uncharacteristically active in terms of snow/ice/sleet/freezing rain.  So potentially kind of nasty.  Delays are likely.

And then there's always the chance for a wintry Nor'easter from mid-February through mid-March.

So stay tuned for updates!

Remember to submit your questions about the weather (or not the weather) to me via email.

Monsoon

Posted on Tuesday, February 13, 2018 at 05:27PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint