Nor'easter comes to a close

The snow should be ending by 9-10pm (already tapering).  Generally 10-14 inches in Reading, Wyomissing, and around Berks.

In terms of school on Thursday 3/22, given the volume of snow; the duration of the event; the heavy, wet nature of the snow; and the fact that lots of secondary roads haven't even been touched - school is doubtful for tomorrow.

Working against these lingering effects: it's not going to get super cold overnight, and the sun angle should result in rapid melting.

Chance of delay Thursday, 93.17%

Chance of cancellation Thursday, 76.24%

Chance of delay Friday, 24.59%

Chance of cancellation Friday, 3.22%

Monsoon

Posted on Wednesday, March 21, 2018 at 06:39PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

Second Phase Update

Snow showers - mostly light - will continue through 10-11pm tonight.  Expect a bit of a lull until about 5-7am, when the second phase of snow gets going.

Snow continues, heavy at times, before tapering about 8-10pm Wednesday night.  Scattered snow showers (and light snow) are possible overnight and into early Thursday morning.

Accumulation (in Berks) will be 8-12 inches, with isolated areas seeing higher totals.  Due to the heavier snowfall, roads will become snow-covered, causing travel impacts.

Other accumulation projections for Wednesday's system:

New York / New Jersey

New York City, 12-18 inches

Princeton, 14-20 inches

Nutley, 13-17 inches

Toms River, 6-12 inches (more mixing initially; watch for coastal flooding and beach erosion)

Cape May, 4-6 inches (lots of mixing with significant ice accrual, coastal flooding, and beach erosion)

Pennsylvania

Columbia, 4-6 inches

Gap, 6-8 inches

Harrisburg, 4-6 inches

Lancaster, 4-6 inches

Lansdale, 10-14 inches

Lititz, 5-8 inches

Norristown, 10-14 inches

Philly, 12-16 inches

Royersford, 8-12 inches

Shippensburg, 3-5 inches

State College, just an inch or two

West Chester, 9-13 inches

School closing probability for Berks:

Chance of delay Wednesday, 14.33%

Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 74.09%

Chance of delay Thursday, 41.55%

Chance of cancellation Thursday, 7.89%

Stay gold, Ponyboy.

Monsoon

Posted on Tuesday, March 20, 2018 at 05:03PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

Upgraded call on Spring Storm

So there are still two phases to this storm, and the first phase will still be minor.  But the second phase, less minor.

Phase 1 begins early Tuesday afternoon and continues through 8 or 9pm.  Expect on and off light snow and rain showers.  Negligible accumulation and, since it's falling during the day, no accumulation on road surfaces.

Phase 2 begins by 5 or 6am Wednesday and continues throughout the morning and afternoon, tapering by 8-9pm.  With this wave, we'll see accumulations of 6-8" (or more in isolated areas) generally in Berks, Lancaster, and Lehigh Valley.  What is working against us in this storm is the fact that there will be mixing; the angle of the sun is sharper; and it's a very wet snow so there will be compacting.  In the dead of winter, this would be a 16-20" storm.  For mid to late March, it's less impressive and disruptive.

Philly and immediate suburbs will be around the same accumulation.  They'll get more moisture, but there will be more mixing, so that'll cancel out.

Given the heavy snowfall rates expected on Wednesday (especially late morning and early afternoon), as well as ice accrual, I expect to see widespread travel issues across the region.

Watch for coastal flooding and beach erosion at the Jersey Shore.

Watch for limbs/trees/power lines falling due to heavy snow and wind, though as noted in the last forecast, the wind will not be as fierce as it was in the last coastal storm.

Impacts:

Chance of delay Tuesday, 3.15%

Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 5.01%

Chance of early dismissal Tuesday, 31.34%

Chance of delay Wednesday, 36.88%

Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 55.79%

Stay tuned for uhhhhhh WHEN WILL THIS WINTER END

Monsoon

Posted on Monday, March 19, 2018 at 08:35PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

This last messy gasp of winter

This is a storm that will have a long duration, but low impacts generally.

Here's what to expect:

On Tuesday, we'll see some rain and snow showers (pretty light) develop by 3-4pm.  High only reaches 35.  Only a coating to an inch of accumulation on grassy surfaces.  Roads are just wet.  Not a big deal at all.  Kinda windy too, but nothing overwhelming.

Note: we'll likely see virga with this storm - where the radar indicates that there's snow falling, but it's evaporating before reaching the ground.  Since our air is pretty dry and there's not a lot of snow cover, the light precipitation will, at times, fail to overcome that dryness.

(Down in Maryland, they could see 2-4 inches of accumulation and heavier snow, which will be more likely to impact roads.)

Then the second portion of this event comes through - Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.  This portion will most likely come farther north (affecting us) and since it is falling mainly at night, it will potentially accumulate and cause disruptions.

Accumulation will be 1-2 inches on grassy surfaces, but snow may also accumulate overnight on secondary roads, causing some disruption to the Wednesday AM commute.

Impacts:

Chance of delay Tuesday, 1.33%

Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 0.03%

Chance of delay Wednesday, 28.11%

Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 4.58%

Stay tuned for updates, as small changes in track or temperature could have a major effect on the forecast.

Monsoon

 

Posted on Monday, March 19, 2018 at 01:04PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

The First Day of Spring Winter Storm 2018

Yep, you read that right: on the first day of spring, we're likely going to get an extended period of wintry weather.

This is a tough forecast because of the time of the year (in mid to late March, it has to snow very heavily to accumulate on roads during the daylight hours) and because there are a lot of "moving parts," meteorologically speaking.

For now, I'm leaning toward at least some snowfall between late Monday night and early Wednesday morning.  Duration and impacts depend heavily on track and other factors, and the forecasting models have been trending away from a long, snowy solution.  But I have a hunch the models will trend back toward a wintry solution as we near the event.

So for now, I'm just telling you what might happen, but I am declining to give a definitive forecast as of yet.

Stay tuned for updates as the picture becomes clearer Sunday and Monday.

Monsoon

Posted on Saturday, March 17, 2018 at 03:57PM by Registered CommenterMonsoon Martin | CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint