monsoonmartin

So there are still two phases to this storm, and the first phase will still be minor.  But the second phase, less minor.

Phase 1 begins early Tuesday afternoon and continues through 8 or 9pm.  Expect on and off light snow and rain showers.  Negligible accumulation and, since it's falling during the day, no accumulation on road surfaces.

Phase 2 begins by 5 or 6am Wednesday and continues throughout the morning and afternoon, tapering by 8-9pm.  With this wave, we'll see accumulations of 6-8" (or more in isolated areas) generally in Berks, Lancaster, and Lehigh Valley.  What is working against us in this storm is the fact that there will be mixing; the angle of the sun is sharper; and it's a very wet snow so there will be compacting.  In the dead of winter, this would be a 16-20" storm.  For mid to late March, it's less impressive and disruptive.

Philly and immediate suburbs will be around the same accumulation.  They'll get more moisture, but there will be more mixing, so that'll cancel out.

Given the heavy snowfall rates expected on Wednesday (especially late morning and early afternoon), as well as ice accrual, I expect to see widespread travel issues across the region.

Watch for coastal flooding and beach erosion at the Jersey Shore.

Watch for limbs/trees/power lines falling due to heavy snow and wind, though as noted in the last forecast, the wind will not be as fierce as it was in the last coastal storm.

Impacts:

Chance of delay Tuesday, 3.15%

Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 5.01%

Chance of early dismissal Tuesday, 31.34%

Chance of delay Wednesday, 36.88%

Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 55.79%

Stay tuned for uhhhhhh WHEN WILL THIS WINTER END

Monsoon

This is a storm that will have a long duration, but low impacts generally.

Here's what to expect:

On Tuesday, we'll see some rain and snow showers (pretty light) develop by 3-4pm.  High only reaches 35.  Only a coating to an inch of accumulation on grassy surfaces.  Roads are just wet.  Not a big deal at all.  Kinda windy too, but nothing overwhelming.

Note: we'll likely see virga with this storm - where the radar indicates that there's snow falling, but it's evaporating before reaching the ground.  Since our air is pretty dry and there's not a lot of snow cover, the light precipitation will, at times, fail to overcome that dryness.

(Down in Maryland, they could see 2-4 inches of accumulation and heavier snow, which will be more likely to impact roads.)

Then the second portion of this event comes through - Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.  This portion will most likely come farther north (affecting us) and since it is falling mainly at night, it will potentially accumulate and cause disruptions.

Accumulation will be 1-2 inches on grassy surfaces, but snow may also accumulate overnight on secondary roads, causing some disruption to the Wednesday AM commute.

Impacts:

Chance of delay Tuesday, 1.33%

Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 0.03%

Chance of delay Wednesday, 28.11%

Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 4.58%

Stay tuned for updates, as small changes in track or temperature could have a major effect on the forecast.

Monsoon

Yep, you read that right: on the first day of spring, we're likely going to get an extended period of wintry weather.

This is a tough forecast because of the time of the year (in mid to late March, it has to snow very heavily to accumulate on roads during the daylight hours) and because there are a lot of "moving parts," meteorologically speaking.

For now, I'm leaning toward at least some snowfall between late Monday night and early Wednesday morning.  Duration and impacts depend heavily on track and other factors, and the forecasting models have been trending away from a long, snowy solution.  But I have a hunch the models will trend back toward a wintry solution as we near the event.

So for now, I'm just telling you what might happen, but I am declining to give a definitive forecast as of yet.

Stay tuned for updates as the picture becomes clearer Sunday and Monday.

Monsoon

Little bit of a snowstorm headed our way.  Not much, but it could impact the Tuesday commute.

Here's what to expect:

Snow showers (mixed with rain) develop Monday afternoon by 4 or 5pm.  Rain gives way to all snow; more frequent snow showers from around 9pm Monday and 8am Tuesday.  Some areas could see a few squalls (short periods of intense snowfall and wind) overnight.  Accumulation only an inch or two.

Becoming windy and raw throughout the day with a widely scattered snow shower or two possible through Wednesday morning.  Keep an eye on the Doppler.  Road conditions will be mostly fine, but can deteriorate rapidly in a squall.

School impacts:

Chance of early dismissal Monday, 3.79%

Chance of delay Tuesday, 29.45%

Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 8.83%

Chance of delay Wednesday, 12.06%

Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 1.12%

Stay tuned for updates!

Monsoon

Hi there.

I've been leaning this way, and models are increasingly in agreement: this coastal storm will be a "miss" for us.

Two emperor penguins, DJ Chillfeet (L) and MC Ice Barz, pose for cover shots ahead of their debut mixtape, All About Da Waddle, which drops on April 1.Goes to our south.  Way to our south.

There's a slight chance of widely scattered snow showers on Monday afternoon and evening, but did you notice the modifiers I used there?  I said "slight" and "widely scattered," so most of us will see nothing.

So just for shits and giggles, here's the forecast for the next week or so:

Sunday 3/11, lots of sunshine and less windy with a high in the mid 40s.  Overnight low in the mid 20s.

Monday 3/12, more clouds than sun and SNOW SNOW SNOW!!! jk.  High around 40.  Overnight low in the mid 20s.

Tuesday 3/13, partly to mostly cloudy and becoming windier with a high in the low 40s.  Could be a stray snow shower.  Overnight low in the mid 20s.

Wednesday 3/14, cooler and sunny.  High only in the upper 30s, which is low for this time of year.  Overnight low in the upper 20s.

Thursday 3/15, more sunshine and a bit milder with highs in the mid 40s.  But just ask Julius Caesar - anything can happen on this day.  Keep your head on a swivel, for sure for sure.

Friday 3/16, sunny and even milder with temperatures climbing into the low 50s.

Next weekend looks milder (upper 50s) but with rain possible on Sunday 3/18.

The following week looks seasonably lovely with afternoon highs in the 50s and overnight lows only getting into the mid to upper 30s.

So have we seen the last of the----

No.  Afraid not.

Monsoon