monsoonmartin

*sighhhhhhhh*

Hi.

It's windy as balls today, but you already know that.  Lots of downed power lines and branches.  Winds will diminish overnight.

Thursday 4/5 will be sunny and breezy (but much less windy than today).  High in the mid 40s.

The Bunk = all of us.Precipitation begins early Friday - we could see a little bit of wet snow mix in between 2 and 6am Friday, but I don't think it accumulates or causes any travel disruptions.

Overcast for the majority of Friday with occasional showers, especially in the morning.  

Snow develops (mixed with rain and sleet at first) early Saturday morning (around 4-6am).  Snow continues throughout the rest of Saturday morning, tapering by mid-afternoon.  Temperatures staying in the mid-30s throughout the day.

Timing and track are extremely important for this storm; the earlier it starts to snow, the more accumulation we'll see.  I'll update the forecast on Friday.

Accumulations:

For Berks, Lancaster, Lehigh Valley, Harrisburg, and York - expect 4-6 inches.

Philly and South Jersey are going to see a lot more mixing, so some areas will just see a slushy coating and some will get as much as 2 inches.

Sunday turns out sunny with a high in the low 40s.

There's the chance of mixed precipitation on Monday into Tuesday, but it's looking like that will be mostly rain and will not be an issue travel-wise.

Stay tuned for AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA ENOUGH ALREADY

Monsoon

What will happen, timeline:

12-1am Monday 4/2, rain showers develop.  Temperatures around 40, but they will fall rapidly through the 30s.

3-4am Monday, rain mixes with (then rapidly changes to) wet snow. 

Temperatures around freezing (32) from about 5-8am, which is critical in terms of impacting the AM commute.

About 9-10am, snow will be outta here.  So it's a fairly fast-moving system.

Accumulations will be widely varied based on where the heavy bands (areas of heavy, intense snow) set up.  Grassy and unpaved surfaces will also see much more accumulation than roads and sidewalks.

Most of us will see 2-3 inches of slushy accumulation.

School impacts:

Chance of delay Monday, 74.38%

Chance of cancellation Monday, 31.56%

Micka-micka-micka Monsoon

There is the potential for snow on Sunday 4/1 into Monday 4/2.

This is not an April Fools joke.

(I will pause for a moment for you to react to this news in whatever way you feel.)

Alright.  So let's talk about what to expect on Saturday 3/31 through the first week of April.

Saturday 3/31 - sunny for most of the day with a high in the upper 50s.  Kinda breezy at night.  Only getting down to the mid 40s.

Sunday 4/1 - today is the day that Christians celebrate Easter.  It is also the birthday of reggae legend Jimmy Cliff (1948), The Minutemen's D. Boon (1958), and YouTube douchecanoe Logan Paul (1995).

[Incidentally, The Minutemen are my favorite band of all time.  I could talk about them for days, but I will not abuse your attention in that manner.]

So it's going to be partly to mostly cloudy on Sunday.  High of around 55.  A bit breezy, but jeez, deal with it.

Expect scattered rain showers to develop by 9 or 10pm Sunday night, so this action should not impact Easter plans or travel.

Temperatures drop into the mid 30s overnight, but are even colder aloft, so it's likely that the rain showers will change to snow - maybe 3am-8am is the window for potentially accumulating snow.

Possible accumulation is an inch or two at most.  But the timing could impact the morning commute.

The sun will rise on Monday 4/2 at 6:46am, so the sunshine (even obscured by clouds at first) will melt/mitigate any slippery accumulation.

Becoming mostly sunny with a high near 50.  Some rain may develop overnight Monday into Tuesday 4/3, but that will just be plain rain (nothing wintry).  High in the low 50s.

Kinda rainy / showery on Wednesday 4/4 as well with a high in the mid 50s.

Clear and sunny and breezy, but chillier again, on Thursday 4/5.  High only in the low to mid 40s.

Chilly and rainy on Friday 4/6 - high in the upper 40s.

The first full weekend in April looks (mostly) dry but still unseasonably chilly - highs in the mid to upper 40s.

If you insist: here is a video (just contains audio) of one of my favorite songs by The Minutemen.

Stay tuned for updates!

Monsoon

The snow should be ending by 9-10pm (already tapering).  Generally 10-14 inches in Reading, Wyomissing, and around Berks.

In terms of school on Thursday 3/22, given the volume of snow; the duration of the event; the heavy, wet nature of the snow; and the fact that lots of secondary roads haven't even been touched - school is doubtful for tomorrow.

Working against these lingering effects: it's not going to get super cold overnight, and the sun angle should result in rapid melting.

Chance of delay Thursday, 93.17%

Chance of cancellation Thursday, 76.24%

Chance of delay Friday, 24.59%

Chance of cancellation Friday, 3.22%

Monsoon

Snow showers - mostly light - will continue through 10-11pm tonight.  Expect a bit of a lull until about 5-7am, when the second phase of snow gets going.

Snow continues, heavy at times, before tapering about 8-10pm Wednesday night.  Scattered snow showers (and light snow) are possible overnight and into early Thursday morning.

Accumulation (in Berks) will be 8-12 inches, with isolated areas seeing higher totals.  Due to the heavier snowfall, roads will become snow-covered, causing travel impacts.

Other accumulation projections for Wednesday's system:

New York / New Jersey

New York City, 12-18 inches

Princeton, 14-20 inches

Nutley, 13-17 inches

Toms River, 6-12 inches (more mixing initially; watch for coastal flooding and beach erosion)

Cape May, 4-6 inches (lots of mixing with significant ice accrual, coastal flooding, and beach erosion)

Pennsylvania

Columbia, 4-6 inches

Gap, 6-8 inches

Harrisburg, 4-6 inches

Lancaster, 4-6 inches

Lansdale, 10-14 inches

Lititz, 5-8 inches

Norristown, 10-14 inches

Philly, 12-16 inches

Royersford, 8-12 inches

Shippensburg, 3-5 inches

State College, just an inch or two

West Chester, 9-13 inches

School closing probability for Berks:

Chance of delay Wednesday, 14.33%

Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 74.09%

Chance of delay Thursday, 41.55%

Chance of cancellation Thursday, 7.89%

Stay gold, Ponyboy.

Monsoon