monsoonmartin

Legendary stage and screen actor Edward James Olmos, best known for his roles as the stolid Lieutenant Martin Castillo on "Miami Vice" and as cal-KOO-lus teacher Jaime Escalante in 1988's Stand and Deliver, turns 69 on Wednesday 2/24.  He's a really good actor and I have long admired his activism, especially around Chicano issues.  So he deserves a storm, right?

There are all sorts of factors at play for the EJO B-Day Storm: sun angle, jet stream, extreme low pressure, and convective bloviation.

Confession: that last thing, I made up.  (All the rest of them are real.)

Here's what to expect over the next 10 days or so:

Tonight: cloudy with a shower or two.  No big.  Temperatures falling from the 50s now to the 30s by morning commute.

Monday 2/22: clearing with highs in the upper 40s.

Tuesday 2/23: afternoon showers with a high in the lower 40s, then rain likely in the evening and overnight.  Lows will be at or just above freezing, so we could see some travel issues for the Wednesday morning commute.  (If the storm tracks farther east, we could see a bit more of an issue with snow and/or ice.  But right now, it looks like all rain.)

Wednesday 2/24: rainy and breezy all day with temps in the mid to upper 40s.  We will likely get an inch to an inch and one or two fifths on Wednesday, so pondiness and flooded roadways are something to watch out for.

Chance of delay Wednesday: 21%

Chance of cancellation Wednesday: 6%

Thursday 2/25: overcast, quite windy and drizzly.  Highs in the upper 40s.

Friday 2/26: partly cloudy, but breezy and noticeably cooler.  Highs in the upper 30s will feel like the upper 20s.  Overnight lows in the low 20s will feel like the teens.  So, colder.

Saturday 2/27 and Sunday 2/28: sunny with highs only in the low to mid 30s.

Leap Day: snow.  For real.  Right now it looks like the kind of event that would give us 2-4 inches, but that's way premature.  Nah, I shouldn't have said that.  Forget I said that.

Lion Day: I call it that because March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb.  And because March 1 is also the birthday of Winston Rodney, better known as Burning Spear, who took his stage name from Kenya's liberator and namesake, Jomo Kenyatta, who was a contemporary of Haile Selassie, who is a central figure of Rastafarianism, which considers him "the conquering lion of the tribe of Judah."  So it all fits.

Anywho, the weather on 3/1 will be sunny and cold (high near freezing).

Future action: Anything else on the horizon?  Maybe a little dusting on Thursday 3/3.  Otherwise, nah.

Monsoon

So.  Most of us had an early D today, which was deeply appreciated.

Light snow today, becoming steadier toward evening.  Snow mixes with sleet and freezing rain between about 8pm and 3am.  Then, as temperatures rise toward daybreak into the mid 30s, we'll see a changeover to plain rain - which will fall all day Tuesday, tapering Tuesday evening.  Tuesday's high will reach all the way into the low 50s!  I know.

Totals - I still think most of us are in the 2-4 inch range.

Hazards - I think the only really hazardous driving will be this evening and tonight, into early overnight.  Tomorrow morning should be fine - just slushy to start, then wet, then pondy.

The back end action I referred to will not materialize, I fear - the precipitation will move on out before the temperatures get down toward freezing again.

The next really good chance for wintry weather will be February 25-26 (that's a Thursday and Friday), when we could see some wet snow.  [Some good news, though: I think we have seen the last of single-digit temperatures for the season.]

Oh, the cancellation/delay numbers:

Tuesday 2/16, delay, 31%

Tuesday 2/16, cancellation, 7%

Wednesday 2/17, delay, 14%

Wednesday 2/17, cancellation, 1.77%

Monsoon

Here is what to expect.

The NAM model, which has been the most aggressive in painting a mostly-snow event for us on Presidents' Day.First, the temperature tonight (Sunday 2/14) will again dip into the single digits, but with calm winds, this is less of a face-lashing issue.  Still, check your pipes and whatnot.

On Monday, we'll see sub-freezing temperatures all day (temps will only rise above freezing in the early morning hours of Tuesday).  Expect light snow starting by about 8 or 9am, then steadier snow by late morning, accumulating 2-4 inches by 8 or 9pm, when it will mix with sleet, then freezing rain, accumulating an extra little half inch of ice.  The freezing rain will continue overnight, changing to plain rain (that is, rain that just falls to the earth as rain, but doesn't freeze to the surface) by 6 to 8am Tuesday.

Sure, I made this graphic. Totally.[Sidebar, but I don't know how to do that on this website, so I'll just say it here: If you are wondering what the difference is between sleet and freezing rain and plain rain, I'm going to tell you now.  If you are not wondering, move along.  Anywho, sleet is frozen pellets that melt when they pass through a tiny warm bit and then refreeze into frozen pellets before they reach the ground.  So frozen pellets.  Freezing rain consists of frozen precipitation that melts in the warm bit, then falls as plain rain--but then hits the freezing surface and turns to ice.  Dangerous, y'all.]

And then Tuesday is milder with highs in the mid 40s, but it will be a washout.  We could be looking for some "back end" action (stop - this is a family blog) on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning if enough cold air gets back to us before the precipitation stops.  That could get us a bonus 1" of snow, ending by about 7am Wednesday.

Travel hazards:

Monday after 11 or 12noon will be dicey, but when the snow mixes with sleet and freezing rain, driving will become downright hazardous to your health.  Tuesday morning, till it changes to plain rain, will be hazardous as well.  Tuesday throughout the day and evening should be fine, though people around here seem to lose their (already tenuous) grasp on driving efficacy when it just plain rains, so watch out.  Wednesday morning may be dicey due to the aforementioned back end action (STOP).

School scheduling snafus:

Chance of cancellation Monday, 58% (they may try to get us in there, then send us home early)

Chance of delay Monday, 8%

Chance of early D on Monday, 88%

Chance of delay on Tuesday, 73%

Chance of cancellation on Tuesday, 13%

Chance of early D on Tuesday, 3%

Chance of delay on Wednesday, 65%

Chance of cancellation on Wednesday, 15%

Chance of early D on Wednesday, 0.5%

Monsoon 

Lest you misinterpret my silence, this storm (christened "Jonas" by The Weather Channel) is a monster.  In fact, it's like Daniel's fourth Beast in Revelations - the one with the ten horns (1. in the satellite image below) - mated with an ill-tempered mythological demon (let's call her Charybdis; see 2. in the image below) to create a super badass Nor'easter that is one of the most potent and dangerous storms I have ever seen.  

Sorry to mix mythological metaphors there, but it seemed appropriate.

1 + 2 = HOLY CRAP

The snow starts between 10pm and midnight Friday for most of the area.  The heaviest snow will fall late Saturday morning and Saturday afternoon.  Snow tapers overnight Saturday into Sunday, then ends by about 8am Sunday.

Travel for Saturday: don't even.  Seriously, it's not worth it.  You might be able to get out on Sunday, but I wouldn't count on it.

Snow totals:

• Philadelphia, Chester County, Lancaster County - 16-22 inches
• north and west suburbs (Montgomery County, Bucks County) - 14-18 inches
• Reading / Berks, Lehigh Valley - 12-16 inches
• parts of Delaware, Maryland - 20-26 inches (the bull's eye!)
• south Jersey - 8-12 inches with some mixing, especially at beginning and end 

Travel impacts: Heavy snow and periods of strong winds will reduce visibility dramatically.  The plows will not be able to keep up with this action, so again, unless it's an emergency, stay home.

Snow day Monday?  I'd call it a 95% chance of delay and a 70% chance of cancellation Monday; 65% chance of delay and 40% chance of cancellation on Tuesday.

Variables: Storm track, obvi.  And a Nor'easter of this size and strength is notorious for banding (whereby one town gets 12 inches and a neighboring town gets 18) and thundersnow (whereby it snows like hell and you hear a rumble of thunder and you think the world must be ending).

Thanks for your kind words and your patience, my loyal readers.  And hey--let's be careful out there.

Monsoon

My dear readers,

The British-produced mockumentary "Hoff the Record" - which had its debut the other night on the aptly named UK channel Dave, is a brilliant send-up of show business and further proof that David Hasselhoff is an incredibly good sport.

In the first episode (presented below in its glorious entirety), a fictionalized version of The Hoff relocates to the UK to try to jump-start his lagging career.  (The fictionalized parts: in the show, David has been divorced five times; in real life, it's twice.  Also, in the show--SPOILER ALERT!--he is flabbergasted to learn that he has a German love child named Dieter Hasselhoff, conceived 25 years earlier after the famed Berlin Wall concert; in real life, he has two daughters, Taylor Ann and Hayley.  Oh, and the fact that his career is in the toilet in the show; in reality, he is master and commander of all he surveys.)

The (fictionalized) Hoff has a useless manager named Max who has lined up a biopic for David (ostensibly about and starring The Hoff himself).  Upon arriving at a dinky airport, Sir Hoff of Hasselhovia is whisked away by a stalkerish and consistently inappropriate driver named Terry Patel, whose first question for his idol is, “Did you ever shag Pamela Anderson, or is she the world’s biggest pricktease?”

[Oh, I should mention that since it's on the telly in the UK, there is plenty of coarse language in "Hoff the Record."]

The Most Hoff is also joined by a personal assistant named Harriet who has no experience as a P.A. - she's a "Ph.D student in malaria."

Soon, David, Duke of Chest Hair, is taken to a soundstage to meet with the biopic's pretentious director, Josh, and the associate producer of the film, who clearly has no idea who he is ("Which one of you is David Hasselhoff?" she asks as she walks up to David, Harriet, and Terry).  It quickly becomes clear that the Legendary Hoffmeister is not only not the star of his own biopic--but will be auditioning for the role.  Needless to say, and in true mockumentary fashion, the real Hoff is the least favored one.

Some more magical moments from the pilot: when Hasselhoff, Prince of Pecs has his first session with his UK personal trainer, Danny, who greets David by saying, “Freeze.  What is wrong with your buttocks?  I’m sorry, David, I’m going to need the full name of your last personal trainer.  That is a right fucking mess.  He’s left you looking like two melted speedbumps.  I’m going to have to report him.”

Der Deutscher Sänger-Legende then stumbles upon a younger actor on the soundstage butchering his Berlin Wall anthem, "Looking for Freedom," upon which David wrestles the microphone away from the pretender and belts out the rest--full gyrations and all.  The director, looking on, gasps, “It’s kind of weird because a chicken can still walk around after he’s had his head bitten off.  And that’s what it was like.”  Ouch.

A bit later, the mockumentary tackles perhaps his most infamous film appearance--one involving a hamburger and a whole lot of drinking--as a younger actor rehearses that scene.  Der Indignant-Hoff busts in and says, “I made a difference in my life and millions of people’s lives.  And one night, I had a bad night.  I had a hamburger.  I had a bunch of beers.  And you know what else?  They tasted good.  It was a private moment - in my life.  And I’m going to do it again.  You know when?  Tonight.  I’m going to have beers, burgers, I’m going to take off my shirt, and I’m going to have a lie-down.  And guess what else?  You can’t film it.  Because it’s a private moment - in my life.”  And then--again, because it's a mockumentary and not a docudrama--they fire him.  HIM!  The very idea.

After the firing he says, “You know what?  I feel great.  I feel invigorated for the first time since I saved Spongebob’s life.”

Watch the full episode below and be sure to tell me what you think!

Monsoon