monsoonmartin

Here is what to expect.

The NAM model, which has been the most aggressive in painting a mostly-snow event for us on Presidents' Day.First, the temperature tonight (Sunday 2/14) will again dip into the single digits, but with calm winds, this is less of a face-lashing issue.  Still, check your pipes and whatnot.

On Monday, we'll see sub-freezing temperatures all day (temps will only rise above freezing in the early morning hours of Tuesday).  Expect light snow starting by about 8 or 9am, then steadier snow by late morning, accumulating 2-4 inches by 8 or 9pm, when it will mix with sleet, then freezing rain, accumulating an extra little half inch of ice.  The freezing rain will continue overnight, changing to plain rain (that is, rain that just falls to the earth as rain, but doesn't freeze to the surface) by 6 to 8am Tuesday.

Sure, I made this graphic. Totally.[Sidebar, but I don't know how to do that on this website, so I'll just say it here: If you are wondering what the difference is between sleet and freezing rain and plain rain, I'm going to tell you now.  If you are not wondering, move along.  Anywho, sleet is frozen pellets that melt when they pass through a tiny warm bit and then refreeze into frozen pellets before they reach the ground.  So frozen pellets.  Freezing rain consists of frozen precipitation that melts in the warm bit, then falls as plain rain--but then hits the freezing surface and turns to ice.  Dangerous, y'all.]

And then Tuesday is milder with highs in the mid 40s, but it will be a washout.  We could be looking for some "back end" action (stop - this is a family blog) on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning if enough cold air gets back to us before the precipitation stops.  That could get us a bonus 1" of snow, ending by about 7am Wednesday.

Travel hazards:

Monday after 11 or 12noon will be dicey, but when the snow mixes with sleet and freezing rain, driving will become downright hazardous to your health.  Tuesday morning, till it changes to plain rain, will be hazardous as well.  Tuesday throughout the day and evening should be fine, though people around here seem to lose their (already tenuous) grasp on driving efficacy when it just plain rains, so watch out.  Wednesday morning may be dicey due to the aforementioned back end action (STOP).

School scheduling snafus:

Chance of cancellation Monday, 58% (they may try to get us in there, then send us home early)

Chance of delay Monday, 8%

Chance of early D on Monday, 88%

Chance of delay on Tuesday, 73%

Chance of cancellation on Tuesday, 13%

Chance of early D on Tuesday, 3%

Chance of delay on Wednesday, 65%

Chance of cancellation on Wednesday, 15%

Chance of early D on Wednesday, 0.5%

Monsoon