monsoonmartin

Snow day crew,

If I had a nickel for every time I've heard that already today, I'd have twenty-five cents.  If I had a nickel for every time I'm going to hear that today, I'd have forty-five million dollars.

The math is solid.  Don't hassle me.

For tonight's storm, this is my latest thinking:

Snow begins by 9 or 10pm tonight, falling lightly at first, then heavier after midnight.  Snow will mix with sleet toward morning (say, 6am) but I still think this is going to be mostly a snow event.  Even if the precipitation changes to rain (which it may, briefly), the rain will freeze on surfaces and make already-treacherous secondary roads impassable.  If you try to walk, you will have an ass-meeting with the sidewalk.

Look at the lines. Isn't it pretty? Wind.Snowfall totals are being overblown by some media outlets, I think.  Other outlets say 4-8" for Lancaster and the western suburbs of Philly, 6-10" for Berks, Allentown, Pottsville, some of North Jersey, and NYC, and 8-12" in northeastern Pennsylvania (Scranton and the Poconos and whatnot) as well as extreme North Jersey. 

I think these amounts are a bit high.  What I'd say is:

2-4 inches in Philly, South Jersey, Chester County, Lancaster County, with .4 inch ice accumulation

4-6 inches in Berks, Allentown, NYC, North Jersey, with .2 inch ice accumulation

6-10 inches in northeastern Pennsylvania (with isolated areas getting a foot or more); no appreciable ice accumulation

But really, at this point, do snow totals mean a whole lot?  I mean, most of us just got 8-10 inches of snow.  Does it really matter if there are 4 inches or 8 inches on top of that?  Unless you are insane (I'm looking at you, Dreads), you are probably very ready for winter to be over.

Back to business.  Snow and/or a foul mixture falls throughout Wednesday morning, ending by about 1pm.  However, unlike in a typical mixed-precipitation event, temperatures will only rise a degree or two above freezing before plummeting back into the lower 20s (and breezy) overnight.

Impacts:

Areas in the first region listed above (Philly, Chester County, etc.) will see widespread icing and power outages.  Less so in the second region (Berks, Allentown, etc.), but the threat is still there.

School closing:

Chance of delay Wednesday, 85%

Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 70%

Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 0.52%

Chance of delay Thursday, 60%

Chance of cancellation Thursday, 20%

Highs on Thursday and Friday will be in the upper 20s, but it will be mostly sunny, so there's that.

The next system is one that continues to bear watching.  It appears that it will affect our area in the late-Saturday-night-to-Monday-afternoon time frame.  And it looks like it could be a big storm.

Stay tuned for updates!

Monsoon