monsoonmartin

Weather Friends,

I’m sticking to my original forecast in general, but have been able to fine-tune some details about the storm…

Over all, I think the snow will be light to moderate, keeping accumulation totals down, but much will depend on temperatures at the surface and aloft, which is a matter that is still quite (pun intended) up in the air.

Driving hazards: To evaluate expected driving conditions, I have devised a road condition scale similar to the Defcon (Defense Condition) scale:

Roadcon 1: smooth sailing with no weather-related impediments to travel

Roadcon 2: wet roadways with the possibility of hydroplaning, but no icy spots; use some caution but not necessary to avoid travel

Roadcon 3: light snow pack or visibility problems impair driving moderately; use a great deal of caution when driving, especially on untreated or back roads

Roadcon 4: moderate to heavy snow and/or ice make driving hazardous; expect travel difficulties on untreated or back roads, and limit travel as much as possible

Roadcon 5: heavy snow or icing and/or very low visibility make driving nearly impossible or extremely hazardous; stay inside!

Accumulations: 2 to 4 inches of snow and ice accumulation generally in central and southern Berks and northern Lancaster Counties, with isolated spots reaching 5 or 6 inches.

School closing: Delay Friday 15% (it wouldn’t make a lick of sense); cancellation Friday 85%. I think it’s the timing of the snowfall, rather than an overwhelming amount or horrible driving conditions, that will lead most area districts to call the day.

The details…

Thursday overnight (10pm to 6am) – increasingly cloudiness with light snow developing by 4 or 5am. Temperatures in the mid 20s. Roadcon 1-2.

Friday morning (6am to noon) – steady snow. Temperatures in the mid 20s. Roadcon 3.

Friday afternoon (noon to 6pm) – snow falls fairly steadily throughout this period, with perhaps some breaks and mixing sleet toward late afternoon. Temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. Roadcon 3-4.

Friday evening (6pm to 10pm) – intermittent snow mixed with sleet and freezing rain; temperatures around freezing. Roadcon 3.

Friday overnight (10pm to 6am) – snow showers and flurries off and on; temperatures dipping into the upper 20s. Roadcon 3.

Saturday morning (6am to noon) – a slight chance of lingering snow showers and flurries; temperatures rising from the upper 20s to the low 30s. Roadcon 2-3.

Saturday afternoon (noon to 6pm) – still overcast with temperatures rising only to the mid 30s. Roadcon 1-2.

Have a great weekend, and be safe!

Monsoon