monsoonmartin

Here's the thing about the weather, and I find it both maddening and exhilarating: it does what it wants.

There are 4-5 major forecast models (and myriad lesser ones) that rely on data and algorithms and trends to develop a forecast.  It should be noted that these models rarely agree, which should be a clear signal that the weather almost seems to be actively resisting being accurately predicted.  Like, you think you can forecast me? Well, watch this.

In more specific terms, even with all of our technological advances and measurement tools and whatnot, forecasting certain kinds of weather still feels like--at best--a notch or two above a coin flip.

Meteorologists have gotten pretty good at predicting temperatures, pretty good at reading the isobars and isotherms, shit like that.  But when it comes to any kind of precipitation, forecasting is downright hapless.  And with "hyperlocal" forecasting, which purports to be able to pinpoint the exact conditions you will encounter when you step outside the door, the accuracy seems to have gotten even less reliable.

How many times have you checked the weather on your phone and it says "it's raining, you're gonna get soaked, abandon hope," but you go outside and it's not doing shit?  Birds singing, blue skies, dry pavement?  Idyllic as you please.

Or it says that snow will begin in 17 minutes, but it actually began about an hour ago and already stopped, and never starts up again?

As it relates to the weekend storm, various weather outlets and meteorologists (and the forecast models that, to a large extent, drive them) will tell you exactly when it's supposed to start precipitating; when it's snow, or freezing rain, or plain rain, or sleet; when the roads will be slippery.  But there's so much happening in the atmosphere during a storm that this certainty is laughable.  95% of those predictions will be wrong, and the other 5% got close because a broken clock is still right twice a day, which come to think of it, is one of those rare sayings that works with us old-heads (clocks with hands) and young-uns (digital jawns) alike.

One neighborhood will get 10 inches of snow while the next one over gets 4 inches.  Hamburg gets mostly rain, but Shillington gets ice and snow.  Shouldn't it be the other way around?

Last thing on this: there are so many layers to the atmosphere (each one is like its own ecosystem), and so many currents and streams in that atmosphere that move warm air and cold air and tepid air hither and thither, that it's a wonder any storm forecast is ever accurate.  Because really, when it comes down to it, despite the GFS, the NAM, the Euro, Siri, Alexa, Google, and your mom--we have little understanding of why things happen.

So what are you saying, Monsoon?  You're not going to even try to navigate us through this meteorological minefield?  You're just throwing up your hands?

Alright, so here's the forecast and I'm going to do six zones, because that's the type of magnanimous and inclusive motherfucker I am:

Philadelphia and surrounding counties: snow starts around 1pm Saturday, accumulating an inch or two.  By 6 or 7pm, snow mixing with, then changing over to, rain, which continues overnight.  Sleet mixes in around 7-9am, then temperatures begin their plunge, so back to snow by 10-11am.  Snow tapers by mid-afternoon and is finished by 4pm.  Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold.  Wind chills in the negative teens by Monday morning.

Worst travel times: Saturday afternoon, Sunday morning, and then Sunday evening through Tuesday morning (low temps, strong winds, ice).

Lehigh Valley and Berks: snow starts about 12-1pm Saturday, accumulating 2-3 inches.  Snow mixes with sleet between 10pm and midnight; plain rain overnight (about 12-5), then freezing rain, sleet, and snow from 5-8, then snow from 8am-2pm Sunday.  Total accumulations: 4-6 inches of snow and sleet. Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold.  Wind chills in the negative teens by Monday morning.

Worst travel times: Saturday afternoon, Sunday morning, and then Sunday evening through Tuesday morning (low temps, strong winds, ice).

Lancaster, York, and Cumberland: Snow mixed with sleet and freezing rain straight away (1pm-midnight).  Plain rain overnight.  Maybe a bit of snow at the end (11am-1pm Sunday).  Very little if any accumulation.  Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold.  Wind chills in the negative teens by Monday morning.

Worst travel times: Saturday afternoon and evening, and then Sunday evening through Tuesday morning (low temps, strong winds, ice).

North Jersey and NYC: Snow arrives 3-4pm Saturday.  Snow mixes with sleet and freezing rain around midnight, then changes over to sleet and freezing rain.  Expect 2-4 inches of snow and ice from this storm, as well as several days of travel paralysis.  Oh!  And power outages.  A little snow mixed in on the "back end" (Sunday afternoon), but nothing that will add to storm totals appreciably.  Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold.  Wind chills in the negative teens by Monday morning.

Worst travel times: Saturday afternoon through Tuesday morning (low temps, very strong winds, ice, travel woes, stay inside).

South Jersey: this looks like an all-rain event for you lucky sons of bitches down the shore.  Maybe a little snow mixed in on the "back end" (Sunday afternoon), but don't you dare complain about that.  Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold.  Wind chills in the negative single digits by Monday morning.

Worst travel times: maybe a little slipperiness on Sunday afternoon?  Then Sunday evening through Tuesday morning (low temps, very strong winds, ice).

Bucks County and central Jersey / Princeton: rain and snow start by around noon Saturday.  Becomes all snow after 5 or 6pm.  Then mixes with sleet 9-10pm, then after midnight it's all rain.  Changing to sleet and freezing rain by 5 or 6am, then maybe a bit of snow on Sunday afternoon.  Total accumulation, 2-4 inches of sleet and snow.  Pretty gross, sounds like.  Watch for flash freeze thereafter as temperatures quickly go from cold to balls-cold.  Wind chills in the negative teens by Monday morning.

Worst travel times: Saturday evening and overnight, Sunday morning, and then Sunday evening through Tuesday morning (low temps, strong winds, ice).

Stay tuned for updates!

Monsoon