monsoonmartin

My good people,

You know that I spurn the hyperbolic alarmism of the major weather outlets (*cough* AccuWeather *cough* Hurricane Schwartz) as canards designed to drive up ratings and incite frenzied consumption of bread, milk, duct tape, bottled water, and bacon. (Gotta have bacon.)

But the system that is now Hurricane Sandy--churning through Jamaica right now, bearing down on Cuba, heading north toward the Bahamas by daybreak Thursday--is likely to deliver us dangerous, disruptive weather.

For reals.

Rather than bore you with talk of convection and trough depth and model solutions, I will simply note that there is disagreement in the meteorological community (and among forecast models) about the precise track Sandy will follow, which determines whether we get a direct hit or a glancing blow.

Here's what I think is the most likely development of this system:

Sandy makes landfall in the New Jersey-New York-Connecticut area on Monday afternoon. The result is damaging winds for people as far inland as central Pennsylvania, as well as major coastal and inland flooding. (There was some talk of snow with this system. Aside from extremely high elevations in the Appalachians, I don't see it. This is just heavy rain.)

So here's the forecast for the next 10 days or so, with updates forthcoming as I get a surer handle on Sandy:

Thursday 10/25: A foggy morning gives way to a partly sunny day. Still warmer than normal with highs in the lower 70s and lows in the upper 50s. Maybe a bit of drizzle/mist and fog late at night.

Friday 10/26: Scattered fog again, and again we'll see highs in the lower 70s--though clouds will dominate throughout the day. A cloudy night with lows in the mid 50s.

Saturday 10/27: Sun mixed with clouds and breezy. Highs in the upper 60s, lows in the lower 50s. Maybe a sprinkle or two during the day, but mostly dry.

Sunday 10/28: Noticeably cooler with highs only reaching the upper 50s. Breezy and overcast with showers possible during the day, then rain more likely at night. Lows in the mid 40s.

Monday 10/29: Rainy and windy and raw and foul. Temperatures holding steady in the low to mid 50s for much of the day and night.

Tuesday 10/30: Like Monday, but cooler. Still rainy and windy and nasty. Highs struggling to reach 50; lows in the upper 30s.

Gratuitous, inexplicable picture of David Hasselhoff.Wednesday 10/31: Rainy, again. Tapering toward evening. Windy. Highs around 50, lows in the upper 30s.

Thursday 11/1: Partly sunny and colder. Highs only in the mid 40s. Lows in the mid 30s. Still rather windy.

Friday 11/2: Partly cloudy with lingering breezes. Highs in the mid 40s, lows in the low 30s.

Saturday 11/3: Variable cloudiness. Highs in the low 50s, lows in the upper 30s.

Bottom line: Next week is going to be miserable, and possibly dangerous.

Monsoon