monsoonmartin

OK—here is my final pre-storm call. Most crucial here is where the “cutoff” will occur, which is predicated upon the storm’s track. Some forecasters are suggesting that the cutoff (the point at which intensity of snow and accumulations dive dramatically) will be somewhere in the immediate western suburban counties of Philadelphia. I think it’s going to be a bit farther west—somewhere around Lebanon or even Hershey—putting us in the thick of the accumulation. So here’s what I think is going to happen, adjusted slightly from this morning...

Philadelphia and Bucks County, as well as much of New Jersey: light snow (perhaps mixed with rain at first) arrives around 5 or 6pm, heaviest overnight, tapering toward early Monday afternoon. Expect blustery conditions, particularly overnight and into Monday. Accumulating 10-12 inches, with isolated spots getting as much as 14-16 inches. Probability of school delay: 20%. Probability of school cancellation: 95%.

Chester and Montgomery Counties: light snow arrives around 6 or 7pm, heaviest overnight, tapering toward noon Monday. Expect blustery conditions, particularly overnight and into Monday. Accumulating 8-10 inches, with isolated spots getting as much as 12-14 inches. Probability of school delay: 25%. Probability of school cancellation: 90%.

Berks and Lancaster Counties: light snow arrives around 7 or 8pm, heaviest overnight and into the early morning hours, tapering around mid-morning Monday. Expect blustery conditions, particularly overnight and into Monday; drifting will become an issue, especially in colder locations where the snow is dry and fluffy. Accumulating 4-6 inches, with isolated areas getting more. Probability of school delay: 30%. Probability of school cancellation: 75%.

I will send out updates as the storm begins if anything looks dramatically different from what I've laid out above...

Monsoon