monsoonmartin

After an unseasonably warm weekend, temperatures are going to take a steady nosedive over the next couple of weeks, leading perhaps to our first snowstorm!  Temperatures overnight tonight will get into the mid 30s.

Below the WeatherTable and narrative is my Winter Weather Outlook for 2009-2010.  Enjoy!  Comments and counter-predictions are welcome.

The weather:

Weather narrative: Cooler this week with highs in the mid to upper 50s.  Mainly dry with showers and drizzle possible late Thursday and throughout the day Friday.  The weekend looks nice: highs in the mid 50s and autumnally crisp.

We’ll begin next week with a bit of rain, after which temperatures will begin to dip – highs will be in the upper 40s to about 50.

The following weekend is looking potentially interesting (note the four-letter word in the WeatherTable) and much colder. 

Beyond the forecast: The cold trend will continue into December as highs stay in the mid to upper 30s and lows will continue to dip well into the 20s.

Winter Weather Outlook: And, as promised, here is the official Monsoon Martin Winter Weather Outlook® for 2009-2010.  I’ve examined the data, I’ve crunched the numbers, I’ve consulted the models, and I’ve mulled my hunches.  Here’s what I came up with…

Over all, I expect that the upcoming winter will be a bit colder than normal, and we’ll have a bit more snowfall than normal.  (Snowfall totals for Berks and Lancaster Counties usually average in the range of upper 28” to 34”.  Philadelphia and suburbs are usually in the low to mid 20s.  This forecast is for Berks and Lancaster Counties only.)

December will begin with colder than normal temperatures and some wet snow by the 2^nd week of the month.  I think we could also see a small Nor’easter by mid-month.  Things dry out for a couple of weeks, but the week between Christmas and New Year’s Day may be snowy.                                  Predicted snowfall: 6”

January will begin with mild and rainy weather, followed by a period of relative pleasantness.  By mid-month we’ll see some snowstorms (or ice storms), and they’ll make an appearance at the frigid end of the month too.  Predicted snowfall: 12”

February looks bitterly cold, especially the first two weeks.  I see a couple of Nor’easter storms this month, either of which could bring blizzard-like conditions and dump in excess of a foot of snow in the region.  The month ends, and March begins, with moderating temperatures and rainy weather.  Predicted snowfall: 18”

March will bring another smaller storm, and then we’ll see a warm-up by mid-month.  This rapid thaw could bring significant flooding in some areas.  Predicted snowfall: 4”

The Recap: An active winter lies ahead: temperatures will be a bit below normal with some bitterly cold periods; snowfall will be above normal.  Look for snow totals in the vicinity of 40” by the end of the season.  I’m predicting 3-4 school cancellations and 5-6 delays this season.  Get those scrapers, shovels, and snow-blowers ready!

Monsoon