monsoonmartin

Friends,

There have been some alarming forecasts that as much as four inches of snow could accumulate in our area today into tomorrow. I have reexamined the latest meteorological indicators and here’s what I think it going to happen:

Look for flurries and light snow beginning late morning and continuing through the late afternoon, accumulating a coating to an inch and a half at most (more in northern Berks and the Lehigh Valley, where the changeover will take longer; less in Lancaster County, where the changeover will happen more rapidly).

As our region is gradually infused with warm air aloft, we’ll see precipitation mix with sleet at first; expect a snow-sleet mixture as precipitation gets steadier, anytime from 3pm to 9pm. Freezing rain is also likely late in this period.

Toward midnight we should start to see rain mixing in with the sleet, then precipitation should change over to all rain after midnight—washing away what little accumulation may have lain.

Rain will taper and end by the middle of Friday morning at the latest, and then we may even see some sunshine in the afternoon.

Driving conditions should be fine this afternoon, but use caution because even the merest coating on the roadway can cause periodic slippage.

The period from roughly 4pm to 10pm—when the temperature aloft is rising, but the surface temperatures are still pretty cold—is the period I’m most concerned about. Sleet and freezing rain can cause problems with icing on roads, especially less-traveled ones. Use the most caution during this period.

The Friday morning commute should be just fine, but be aware of slick spots that may appear, as temperatures will still be hovering just above freezing as we make our way giddily to our places of employment.

Highs and lows: Thursday 36/30; Friday 44/21; Saturday 36/15 with scattered snow showers possible; Sunday 22/9.

Cancellations: Early dismissal Thursday 35%; delay Friday 25%; cancellation Friday 10%.

Drive safely!

Monsoon