monsoonmartin

Snow.

After a couple of days trying to sort out Sunday's storm (track, precipitation type, etc.) - and wading through the many (and often wildly different from one another) forecast model runs, which now include AI forecasting of varying types and proclivities - I have a better idea of what we might see.

W. H. Auden, born 2/21/1907So here is something approximating an informed stab a respectable amateur meteorological take.

First, the snow is going to be heavy and wet, periodically mixed with rain, as noted below.

Baltimore - Washington: precip begins early Sunday morning, say sometime between 5 and 7.  Rain could mix in a bit in the afternoon, driving down accumulations.  I think we'll see mostly snow due to lower temperatures aloft, along with periods of heavy snow that will cause prodigious accumulation.  Winds will begin moderate, but by late afternoon and evening (and even into Monday morning), we'll see them kick up to 15-20mph sustained with gusts up to 30-35mph.  Nothing catastrophic, but there could be isolated instances of tree damage and power outages.  And of course, some areas (mostly on the NJ-DE-MD coasts) will see periods of blizzard-like conditions.

Nina Simone, born 2/21/1933

• Accumulations - 5-8 inches generally in the DMV, but that number could be reduced if a significant portion of the precipitation is rain.  Isolated areas could see as much as a foot!
• School Monday? - No.
• When will it end? - continues overnight from Sunday to Monday, tapering by noon and ending by mid-afternoon.

Barbara Jordan, born 2/21/1936Norristown - Bucks - Philly: similar observations about the timing (Sunday early morning through Monday late morning) and winds.  Should be spared from blizzard-like conditions.

• Accumulations - 7-10 inches with isolated areas approaching 14-16 inches.
• School Monday? - No.  Probably not Tuesday either.
• When will it end? - tapers and then comes to an end around noon Monday.

Alan Rickman, born 2/21/1946Jersey Shore, Delaware beaches, Maryland's Eastern Shore: increased likelihood of blizzard-like conditions (higher winds than described in the forecast areas above) which could bring greater indicidence of power outages.

• Accumulations - could be in the 9-12 range with several inches more possible in isolated areas.  The snow forecast numbers for this region could fall dramatically if there is more rain (or even mostly rain).

Tituss Burgess, born 2/21/1979

• School Monday? - No.  Could be more days off if there are widespread power outages and/or flooding.
• When will it end? - starts as a wintry mix by mid-morning on Sunday, winding up a bit later than the other regions (tapering and ending by around dinnertime on Monday).

Jennifer Love Hewitt, born 2/21/1979Reading - Berks - Lancaster: similar to Norristown - Bucks - Philly.  An increased risk of blizzard (or blizzard-like) conditions, which can result in more quickly deteriorating road conditions, blowing and drifting snow.

• Accumulations - 6-12 inches, more in isolated areas.
• School Monday? - No, although it seems to be increasingly popular for schools to deploy and two-hour delay even when the road/lot conditions remain treacherous.
• When will it end? - noon Monday (or shortly thereafter)

Jordan Peele, born 2/21/1979

And there you have it.  A good, old-fashioned bomb cyclone to round out a miserably frigid and snowy winter.

Enjoy!

💓 Monsoon

Howsabout a snow forecast for old times' sake?

Forecasting Monday evening/Tuesday morning's snow/rain event.  Will provide prognostications/outright guesses for four forecast zones: northern-central Berks; southern Berks-northern Lancaster County and Warrington; Norristown, Blue Bell, King of Prussia; and Baltimore City & Coumty.

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The forecast:

N-central Berks - snow starts 2am early Tuesday.  Steadiest 7am-12noon.  Between 10am-2pm, snow will mix with (and change to) rain.  Precipitation ends by 8-10pm at the latest.  It's what we in the meteorological industry call a "quick hitter."  Accumulation 2-4 inches.  School closing numbers: delay 38%, cancellation 30%.

S Berks/Nolanco/Warrington - snow starts between 3-4am.  Steadiest 8-10am.  Mixing and changing very quickly.  Precipitation ends by 7-10pm.  Accumulation 1-3 inches.  School closing: delay 12%, cancellation 16%.

Central Montco - snow starts 4-5am.  Steadiest 7-9am.  Mixing and changing to rain very early on in the storm.  Accumulation coating to 1.4 inches.  Delay 9%, cancellation 4.75%.

Charm City and its environs - snow and rain starting around 6am and continuing through 6pm.  The mixing will be nearly instantaneous and will result in little to no accumulation (0-.5 inches).  No chance of delay or cancellation.

General thoughts about this (meteorological) winter, which runs from 12/1 to 2/28.  Cold.  More snow than normal.

As always, keep it real.

Monsoon

Regarding tomorrow's snow: 

Monsoon

P.S. As much as I hate Tom Brady, I think the Bucs are going to win the game. Prediction: 24-13.

Hi all,

In NW Baltimore, we have 3.5 inches and it's still snowing big-ass flakes.  Forecast was for an inch or two of intermittent precipitation with lots of mixing.  Haven't seen any mixing yet.

Could you post your current totals with location, time, road condition observations, pictures, and any other observations?  (Best way to do this is by replying to my FB post or posting a comment at the end of this post.)

Be safe out there if you must drive.

Monsoon