monsoonmartin

An angry-assed turkey.Here’s an update on the storm I have christened GobbleBlock 2014©®™.  A final call (if necessary) will be issued late Tuesday night.

There are a number of factors here:

• time of year (late November rather than January)
• speed of the storm (it’s going to zip through)
• warm surface temperatures prior to the storm (70s on Monday, 50s Tuesday)
• little indication that there will be heavy mesoscale banding with this storm
• less than impressive temperature gradients

So what does this all mean?  Here’s what to expect on Wednesday 11/26/14:

Rain begins by 7 or 8am.  Changes to snow by 10 or 11am.  Heaviest snow likely between 2 and 4pm.  Snow tapers by 8 or 9pm.

Temperatures will be in the mid 30s all day, falling below freezing by 9 or 10pm.  Thanksgiving Day looks partly sunny and dry with highs in the mid 30s.

Accumulations:

• 2-3 inches in Berks and Lehigh Counties
• 3-5 inches in the Poconos and north Jersey
• 1-2 inches in Philly and its immediate suburbs
• coating to an inch places south and east of Philly – so if you’re travelling, the roads should just be wet

School impacts:

• Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 22%
• Chance of early dismissal Wednesday, 44.75%

Travel impacts:

The snow will be wet and heavy, so when it snows, the road will get tightly packed with snow, and will therefore be slippery.  Worst time to be on the road is anytime between noon and 6pm.  Thereafter we should see tapering, but be careful of icy/slick spots in the evening due to dropping temperatures and the darkness.  Oh, and the winds.  So yeah, maybe don’t go out Wednesday night either.  

Flights will be delayed and cancelled, I am sorry to say – particularly those flying in or out of areas affected by the rain/snow/wind/low ceilings (Philadelphia, NYC, Newark, and Boston).  By late Thursday morning, most of this should be cleared out and travel (by car, plane, bicycle, or foot) will be getting back to normal.

On Thursday, the Eagles will beat the Cowboys by a score of 34-17.

Have a good holiday and, if you are travelling, be careful.

Monsoon