Flapdoodle Gang,
So I'm tracking three storms that could bring winter weather to our area: Sunday night into Monday (likely just an inch or two, if that); Tuesday night into Wednesday (a mixed event with significant icing is looking more and more likely); and next Saturday and Sunday (a potentially larger snow event).
I'll have updated forecasting on these systems throughout the weekend.
Jörg! Keepin' in Swiss.Allow me a moment to address the recent snowpocalyptic rumors, hollered at me in the school parking lot, pinging around the hallowed halls of Mifflin, overheard in the grocery store, shared with me on Facebook, and yodeled in my general direction by an eclectic Swiss forensic accountant named Jörg.
(Alright, I made that last one up.)
One such rumor says that we are going to get 40 inches of snow next weekend. Another puts the figure at 24 inches; still another says 30 inches.
It turns out that the 40 inches figure was a cumulative one - the total precipitation expected from several storms over the course of more than a week. And it's been traced to some teenage kid who shared this map without context, causing it to go viral and everyone to go Defcon-five apeshit.
And the 24 and 30 inch totals were from one model, one run, 9 days before the event would (or would not) happen.
Here are the facts:
- The snow ratios - the ratio of snowfall to liquid precipitation - for these three storms are expected to be in the range of 10:1 to 5:1. When it's colder out - as with the powdery events earlier in January - the ratios are 15:1 and even 20:1. So in order to produce 40 inches at a 5:1 snow ratio, we'd need 8 inches of rainfall. (The average total precipitation for this area in the entire month of February is about 3 inches.)
- Even at a 10:1 snow ratio, we'd still need 4 inches. And the 24-inch prediction, at a 10:1 ratio, would still require 2.4 inches of liquid, which is kind of a lot.
- Any forecast that purports to give snow totals 9 days from the event (or even 5 days from the event) is a steaming load of ballyhoo on a bed of fiddlesticks, festooned with glimmering twaddle.
So there you have it. No 24, no 30, no 40 inches. It's best to be prepared, to be sure. (Atlanta was warned about the snow, but ignored it. And gridlock ensued.) But in reality, these potential winter weather events are likely to produce a figure far under any of those numbers.
Stay tuned for updates!