The models have shifted, and now it looks as though Tuesday's storm will be a bit more significant than I initially thought.
Light snow begins between 9 and 11am, then intensifies in the afternoon. Heaviest period of snow will be from about 1pm to 6pm. Then snow will taper by 9pm or 10pm.
Accumulations:
- 4-6 inches in Philadelphia's immediate suburbs and on out to Lancaster County, Berks, Lebanon, and Lehigh.
- 2-4 inches in areas north and west of that. The "line" between 2-4 and 4-6 will be quite sharp, and looks as though it will cut through Lebanon, Berks, and Lehigh Counties. So if and when that happens, areas in central and southern Berks would get 5 inches, while northern Berks only gets 2. Like that.
- 6-8 inches in extreme southern Pennsylvania, much of Philadelphia, south Jersey, and Delaware. Isolated areas in this band could approach a foot of accumulation--particularly south and east of Philadelphia.
Now about school cancellations and whatnot.
Because Hasselhoff. #becausehasselhoffConsiderations: the temperature will be 20 degrees around 7am, then fall to the mid teens by 5pm, and fall to the single digits overnight into Wednesday. Winds will start fairly light, but by 5pm the winds will be 15-20mph sustained, driving wind chills into the negative single digits. Wind chills by early Wednesday morning will be in the neighborhood of -12.
The roads will become slick even in light snow. In colder temperatures, road treatments like brine and rock salt are less effective. The evening rush on Tuesday will be treacherous: snowy and windy with drifting snow, low visibility, and temperatures in the teens.
I'm stalling.
Here are my predictions. Again, these are not meant to add up to 100%.
Chance of delay Tuesday, 10%
Chance of cancellation Tuesday, 60%
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday, 75%
Chance of delay Wednesday, 65%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday, 30%
Stay tuned for updates!