After a deep freeze this morning—it got down to 5 degrees this morning at my home—five!—we’re looking at a warm-up (at least to less arctic temperatures) by mid-week. I’ve also got my eye on a system that could bring us a delay or cancellation on Wednesday and a few more interesting longer-term issues.
Monday 2/11: Sunny and extremely cold. High 22, low 14.
Tuesday 2/12: Cloudy with light snow showers or flurries developing by the late afternoon; steadier snowfall is likely in the evening, so limit your travel. As warmer air mixes in aloft, look for sleet to mix in with the snow by around midnight, then gradually change over to freezing rain thereafter. High 31, low 28.
Wednesday 2/13: Freezing rain will continue through mid-morning, after which periods of regular old rain will fall. Precipitation will taper throughout the afternoon. High 37, low 21.
Forecast models: There is significant disagreement in terms of storm track and timing among the various forecast models, but I’m favoring a slower-moving system with significant precipitation, much of which will be wintry.
Accumulations: I’m thinking 2 to 3 inches of accumulated snow and ice here, with locally higher amounts in northern Berks and lower in Lancaster and Chester Counties. Heaviest accumulations will be in northeast Pennsylvania and north Jersey. As noted above, much will depend on the timing and exact track of this storm; as such, I will be updating the situation tomorrow.
Driving hazards: The commute home from school or work on Tuesday will be affected very little, but again, use extreme caution if you need to be out and about Tuesday evening. The worst time for driving will be overnight Tuesday into Wednesday and Wednesday morning’s commute. Rain thereafter will wash everything away and improve conditions dramatically.
School scheduling changes: PSSA testing is this week, which means that administrators are going to be loath to wreck their best-laid plans for a few slippery roads. That said, my predictions for now are
Chance of early dismissal Tuesday: 10%
Chance of delay Wednesday: 70%
Chance of cancellation Wednesday: 35%
Thursday 2/14: Partly cloudy and milder. High 41, low 26.
Friday 2/15: Mostly cloudy and rather breezy. High 44, low 27.
Next weekend: A bit cooler with highs in the mid 30s and lows in the low 20s; snow is possible on Sunday the 17th.
The following week: More of the same—highs in the low to mid 30s and lows in the upper teens and low 20s. Look for a possible winter weather event on Wednesday the 20th. Things warm up a bit toward the end of next week.
Beyond: Trending milder, but this is the season for Nor’easters and surprise storms. Last year we received our most significant snowfall on February 15th and March 15th. Stay tuned…
Monsoon